This week’s view
Steel industry: the increase of steel price has increased
The increase of steel prices expanded. As of March 31, thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe reported 5077 yuan / ton, 5347 yuan / ton, 5312 yuan / ton, 5758 yuan / ton, 5357 yuan / ton and 5465 yuan / ton respectively this week, with a weekly increase of 2.92%, 2.69%, 1.43%, 1.50%, 2.57% and 2.30% respectively.
This week, social inventory continued to decline slightly to 168617 million tons, down 220900 tons. The total inventory of major steel mills was 6.2918 million tons, down 80600 tons.
The gross profit per ton of steel has narrowed. Referring to the inventory cycle of raw materials, the gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe was 825 yuan, 1095 yuan, 960 yuan, 856 yuan, 1105 yuan and 913 yuan respectively, down 38 yuan, 74 yuan, 83 yuan, 93 yuan, 31 yuan and 82 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, the epidemic affected both supply and demand of the national steel market. At present, the price of raw materials continues to rise, which forms a support for the cost side of steel prices. It is expected that the short-term steel price shock will be strong. At present, social inventory remains relatively low, which shows that the relationship between supply and demand is still relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to the gradual mitigation of the epidemic in the later stage and the recovery of demand under steady growth.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on target
Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) . Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Industry: continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair market of lithium and rare earth sectors, the short-term spot price surged and fell, and the medium and long-term high is expected to remain stable
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2810 / ton this week, the same as last week; The quotation of lithium hydroxide is 491500 yuan / ton, the same as last week; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 502500 yuan / ton, down – 0.1%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 926000 yuan / ton, 2650000 yuan / ton and 13180000 yuan / ton this week, down – 6.65%, – 7.02% and – 4.63% respectively. The spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy continues to be tight, and the state of continuous low inventory in the industrial chain will remain. Driven by the replenishment of inventory by downstream enterprises, we expect the price center of lithium and rare earth to continue to rise;
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices fell – 0.54% this week to close at 73160 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price fell – 1.95% to close at 22640 yuan / ton. In foreign countries, the high oil price has fallen, which has driven the decline of aluminum with strong energy properties. At the same time, the yield of US bonds is upside down, and the market is worried about the long-term recession. In China, the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control this week affects logistics and downstream demand. However, at present, Shanghai prevention and control has entered the comprehensive prevention and control of “controlling speed with speed”, which is expected to quickly solve the epidemic problem. The poor reality may indicate a more proactive steady growth policy, and the downstream demand in the second quarter is not pessimistic.
In terms of copper, as of March 30, LME inventory was 87900 tons, an increase of 0900 tons compared with March 23, and Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 27500 tons to 102100 tons; The main reasons for inventory differentiation are (1) the cost of China’s scrap copper has increased and the supply has decreased due to the implementation of the new tax policy, (2) the recent copper price is strong outside and weak inside, and the import loss has increased. It is expected that the mine end supply will be loose this year, but the refined copper production capacity has not been significantly expanded. At present, the operating rate of copper smelting is maintained at about 85%. Steady growth may lead to the recovery of demand in the second quarter. Low inventory, large import losses and tight supply of scrap copper may benefit the copper price in the medium term.
In terms of aluminum, the sharp fluctuation of crude oil price drives the sharp fluctuation of aluminum price. Although the aluminum price fell this week, the average profit of China’s simulated electrolytic aluminum industry is 5574 yuan / ton. Under the current situation of obvious energy price difference at home and abroad, the risk of sharp correction of China’s electrolytic aluminum profit is small, and the sustainability of electrolytic aluminum profit may exceed market expectations. The spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 1041000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared with last week, of which 13000 tons were increased on March 28 compared with March 24 and 11000 tons were reduced on March 31 compared with March 28, mainly due to (1) the production and resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and (2) the impact of the epidemic on transportation. Weak demand may indicate a more urgent steady growth policy, and the downstream demand in the second quarter is not pessimistic.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 92 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) 6 Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) 01 Founder Technology Group Co.Ltd(600601) 899 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continued spread of the epidemic in China.
