Home furnishing: the fundamentals are expected to improve, superimposed with low valuation, and the investment opportunities of head enterprises are highlighted. Under the tone of steady growth, the real estate policy continued to exert force. Cities continued to release real estate deregulation policies due to urban policies, driving the rapid rise of the sector index. As of April 1, 2022, the CSI 300 rose 8.45% from the low point, while the real estate sector rose 29.12% from the low point. The epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the short-term home operation, and the demand for home decoration has the attribute of rigid demand. It is expected to be released in a centralized manner with the improvement of the epidemic in the future. The valuation of the household goods sector is at an all-time low and highly cost-effective. On April 1, 2022, the pe-ttm of the household goods sector reached 21.71, and the market quantile was as low as 0.59%. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings].
E-cigarette: the new regulations of e-cigarette continue to ferment, and the long-term growth is still significant. E-cigarette regulatory policies adjust the taste and export regulations. In terms of taste, the regulation prohibits the sale of flavored e-cigarettes other than tobacco taste, which will impact the terminal demand in the short term. In the long term, e-cigarettes will return to the replacement of traditional cigarettes. China has the largest group of smokers in the world, and the penetration rate of e-cigarettes is low. There is still broad space in the future. In terms of export, the regulation has relaxed the export regulations and deleted the requirement that export e-cigarette brands need to obtain monopoly licenses. The e-cigarette policy environment of various countries continues to improve, and the market demand grows steadily. China is the location of the world’s main e-cigarette industry chain, and will realize continuous expansion driven by the growth of overseas e-cigarette market in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: electronic cigarette industry leaders [smore international], [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ].
Papermaking: the pressure on the industry has accelerated, the concentration has increased, the pulp price has risen, and the performance elasticity of downstream enterprises can be expected. Waste paper: as of April 1, the price of waste yellow paperboard was 2312 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.7% over last week; The price of corrugated box board was 3787.5 yuan and 4833 yuan / ton respectively, up 0.41% and stable compared with last week. Pulp and paper: as of April 1, the prices of broad-leaved pulp, coniferous pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were 6083, 6986 and 5417 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of – 44, – 32 and – 25 yuan / ton respectively compared with last week; The prices of double offset paper, double copper paper and white cardboard were 6225, 5680 and 6385 yuan / ton respectively, which remained unchanged compared with last week. Special paper: in the short term, the raw materials of special paper are mainly pulp and chemical raw materials. The rise of pulp price supports the continuous rise of special paper price, and the performance flexibility of head enterprises can be expected; From a long-term point of view, the layout of special pulp enterprises continues to expand, and the performance of special pulp enterprises is good in the long run. It is suggested to pay attention to: pulp and paper is the leading [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]; Special paper faucet [ Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) ], [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ], [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ].
Packaging: the market is better controlled, the profit is restored, and the business is vertically expanded and integrated. Paper packaging: benefiting from the trend of environmental protection, the paper packaging industry is expected to expand, but the market concentration is low and needs to be improved; Leading enterprises began to transform from manufacturers to packaging solution providers, and their business achieved vertical development. Plastic packaging: the market scale is growing steadily and the market concentration is low; Ordinary plastic packaging is widely used downstream, with fluctuating demand and fierce competition; The technical barrier of special materials is high, and the leading enterprises can rely on the technical barrier to build a strong moat. Metal packaging: the rise in the price of raw materials and the improvement of supply and demand pattern will improve the profitability of enterprises; Drinks and drinks are the main downstream applications of metal packaging. Compared with overseas, there is a wide space for the improvement of beer canning rate in China, and the downstream demand of metal packaging will continue to develop. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) ], [ Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) ] and [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
Risk tip: the risk that the economic growth is less than expected; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
