Market review last week (2022.3.282022.4.1): the stock index fluctuated upward after opening low and going high last week, and reached a slight rise on the fifth day after opening low and going low on the fourth day. The Shenzhen index remained low last week, opened low and went high on the third day, and remained high on the fourth and fifth days. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19% to close at 328272. Last week, it closed at 427676% higher in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Last week, four social service sub sectors and tourism retail sectors rose, with the range from high to low: hotel catering (+ 7.31%), tourism retail (+ 7.01%), tourism and scenic spots (+ 4.86%), education (+ 1.01%) and professional services (- 0.11%). Last week, 22 of Shenwan (2021) 31 Tier-1 industries rose, with the top five rising in real estate, building materials, banking, media and transportation. Among them, the social service sector rose by 2.96%, ranking 11th among Shenwan’s 31 industries. The social service industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.53pcts. The duty-free sales market is improving; Hotel industry leaders support franchisees to stabilize their performance; The demand of western tourism market for festivals is restored; Many governments have introduced measures to bail out enterprises.
Hainan outlying islands are hot for duty-free sales: on March 29, according to the news released by Sanya customs, since the implementation of the duty-free shopping policy on Hainan outlying islands in 2011, the Customs has supervised the sales of duty-free goods on outlying islands in Sanya City for more than 100 billion yuan and more than 17 million people. Due to the recent fluctuation of the epidemic, the passenger flow in Hainan has decreased in the short term, and the tax exemption on outlying islands may seize the opportunity of the bottom of the layout.
The hotel head group has launched a number of measures to help franchisees: up to now, many hotel groups, including first travel home, Yaduo group and Huazhu group, have launched support policies to their franchised hotels. It includes many targeted measures, such as reduction and exemption of store management fees in medium and high-risk cities and regions, delayed payment of franchise fees, flow support and Liquidity Guarantee support. Boost the investment confidence of franchisees in the hotel market, alleviate the operating pressure of stores due to the cash flow problem of the epidemic, and help the restorative development.
The western market will welcome the peak season of holiday tourism: on March 30, Ctrip released insight into the travel trend of 2022 Qingming holiday. The data show that during the Qingming holiday in 2022, the total number of tourism orders in the West accounted for 67% of the tourism in the East. The recovery of the epidemic situation in Shenzhen has led to a rebound in the number of tourism orders in the surrounding areas. Local and short-distance tourism are still the mainstream consumption mode. It can be predicted that the tourism demand will improve after the epidemic is controlled.
All localities implement relief policies to accelerate the recovery of the social service industry: Recently, Yunnan, Hangzhou, Guangdong, Inner Mongolia and other places successively issued documents on the implementation of policy opinions on promoting the recovery and development of the service industry, and the Ministry of culture and tourism issued a notice on the implementation of relief support policies for promoting the recovery and development of the tourism industry on March 31. On the basis of precise epidemic prevention and control, we will actively implement and stabilize the basic recovery of the social service industry from the aspects of Finance and taxation, industry, finance and employment.
Investment suggestions:
Tax exemption on outlying islands still maintains high consumption enthusiasm, and the market is improving for a long time; Recently, the epidemic situation in various regions is severe. Many hotel groups have issued financial, flow and other assistance strategies to provide investment guarantee for franchisees; Western cities are less disturbed by the epidemic, and take the lead in ushering in the Qingming holiday. Tourism demand rebounds. The strong recovery of consumption power shows the vigorous demand of the masses for tourism; Various localities have launched a number of favorable policies to accelerate the recovery process of the service industry. It can be predicted that after the epidemic prevention situation is stable, the effectiveness of the preferential enterprise policy will be further demonstrated. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , and other hotels, scenic spots and comprehensive tourism service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) to release the benefit target of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) to focus on high-frequency consumption scenes and innovation target of life services.
Risk tips:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
