Recent key changes (03280405): ① during the small and long holiday, Quzhou, Qinhuangdao, Mianyang, Lanzhou and other places issued real estate related policies, reflecting the continuous marginal relaxation due to urban policies. ② The monthly sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises in March was 511.5 billion yuan, and the monthly performance scale decreased by 52.7% year-on-year (source: Kerui). ③ 2021 annual report released this week: Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) etc.
Core view:
(1) pay attention to the performance expectation of the first quarter. We expect the glass fiber and retail building materials sectors to be relatively prominent, [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) ] are expected to show both volume and price increases, and benefit from overseas demand. In addition, we continue to be optimistic about the support of rigid demand + the restoration of the real estate boom, the superposition of the slowdown of hardcover, and the better cash flow and profit margin of retail and distribution mode. The core recommendation is [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profitability and concentric circle acceleration; Focus on [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] developed by C-end and integrated company, and [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] with outstanding consumer brand power.
(2) the real estate chain is catalyzing overweight, and is transitioning from the bottom of policy to the bottom of market. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market, and the contribution of the real estate chain is expected to improve marginally. Real estate sales is the source of confidence. Although the supply side risk has not been completely cleared, the overall process is coming to an end. After the policy bottoms out, the small cycle of real estate is expected to recover, and the data of sales, commencement, construction and completion are gradually improved. At the current time point, the dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest to pay attention to: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. Focus on the core faucet + elastic combination. The target of the core faucet is [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [China Liansu] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ].
(3) in March, the epidemic suppressed the demand and put great pressure on the cement storage: the shipment rate of enterprises in mainstream areas generally decreased by about 20%. Affected by this, the cement price fluctuated and adjusted again. If it cannot be alleviated before the end of the month, some regions may extend the peak shifting production response. Follow up tips focus on ① the release of demand backlog after the epidemic is alleviated, ② the acceleration of the second curve of leading enterprises (aggregate, concrete, etc.), and ③ the increase of dividend rate. Key targets include [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] [ Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) ].
(4) continue to be optimistic about the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network, water reducing agent and waterproof. There is no shortage of infrastructure projects or funds, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. Growth + cycle focus on water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus on [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], dividend + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu].
(5) pay attention to the opening of the era of energy-saving buildings, BIPV has broad prospects, and thermal insulation materials still need time. In terms of BIPV, we believe that in combination with the recovery rate and technical requirements, we will focus on the industrial roof and the facade of public / municipal buildings in the early stage, focusing on Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . In addition, we should pay attention to the opportunities of thermal insulation and energy-saving materials and pay attention to: energy-saving glass, energy-saving doors and windows, gypsum board, thermal insulation mortar, rock wool, thermal insulation decorative board, VIP board, aluminum formwork, etc., but we still need to wait for ① policy guidance on subdivisional thermal insulation materials, and ② the structural proportion of thermal insulation material revenue in Listed Companies in China.
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
