The regulatory policy of the medical and beauty industry is becoming stricter, and the scope of product certification is clear. (1) Industry trends: the technical guidelines for medical beauty in Zhejiang Province was officially released on March 12, mainly aiming at medical beauty chaos such as “black institutions”, “black doctors” and “black medicine and equipment”; The China Integration Association will carry out a nationwide sampling survey on medical and American consumption from March to July this year, and strengthen the rectification of the medical and American industry. (2) Medical and American products: the State Food and drug administration adjusted the classification catalogue of medical devices, and “Shuiguang needle” and other sodium hyaluronate solutions for injection were officially recognized by the supervision and included in the supervision of class III devices; RF treatment equipment, facial implant line and other products are adjusted to class III instrument supervision. Strict formal product certification is beneficial to qualified medical and American leading enterprises.
The growth rate of new stores of terminal institutions is considerable, and the concentration is inclined to the third and fourth tier cities. There are 12906 medical and beauty enterprises in China, an increase of 20.83% over the same period last year. Among them, the total number of medical and beauty institutions in the first and second tier cities reached 6850, accounting for 53.08% of the total number of institutions in China, down from 57.44%. During this period, the new medical and beauty institutions were mainly concentrated in the third and fourth tier regions. The total number of institutions in the top five cities including Chengdu, Shenzhen, Xi’an, Beijing and Hangzhou reached 2377, which was basically the same as that in the same period last year, and the total proportion in the first and second tier cities decreased from 38.4% to 34.70%. Among them, due to strict supervision and law enforcement in Beijing and Shanghai, the number of terminal stores decreased by 29.14% / 24.79% year-on-year to 253 / 176 respectively. The demand for medical beauty in Xi’an and Chongqing increased rapidly, and the number of corresponding terminal stores reached 484 / 281 respectively.
The competition in the terminal market is fierce, and the advantages of leading companies are prominent. Leading enterprises Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) have more comprehensive competitiveness in the terminal market by virtue of rich product matrix, differentiated price band and reputation of high-quality products. According to the evaluation of the medical beauty product list of new oxygen app3 in January: 1) filling single product: Hi body series has the leading comprehensive heat and the first safety score. Hi sports series continues to dominate the list with a total of 10075 comments and a popularity score of 8.8-9.0. Runbaiyan series: the first mover advantage is obvious, and the sales volume is significantly ahead. Since the launch of the new oxygen platform, there have been more than 10000 comments on the whole network, and the cumulative sales volume of the top 10 institutions in the top five medical and American cities has exceeded 28600. 2) Recycled item: the market of moistening white angel is highly praised and popular. After listing, the effect score reached 5.0; There are 162 certification bodies and 138 certified doctors on the new oxygen platform, and the promotion growth rate can be expected in the future. Eyans brand positioning is high-end, and the terminal demand is rising. Girls’ needle products are positioned as high-end, with a reference retail price of up to 18800 yuan, ranking first in injection medical and beauty products, and 52 certification institutions on the new oxygen platform. 3) Shuiguang single product: the safety score of Runzhi doll needle is the first, and the recovery cycle is short. The safety of doll needle injection is high, and it can be completely recovered in only 0-1 days after operation. Runzhi twin needle: good user experience, painless and long-term treatment. In the terminal evaluation of twin needle injection body, painless accounted for 67%, and the injection effect can be maintained for 8-12 months, which is in a dominant position in similar products. Sili kinetic energy element: a high-level Shuiguang brand, with the first reputation of its kind.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the regulatory policy helps to continuously guide the standardized development of the industry, and is expected to further improve the concentration of high-quality injection manufacturers. We continue to be optimistic about Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , the leading medical and American enterprises with strong qualification barriers and rich product line layout Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) : the expansion of product line has a global perspective. 1) The strong performance of hi body series drives the overall growth of performance. 2) Angel needle aims at the renewable blue ocean market. Botulinum toxin, liraglutide and other pipelines under research are abundant, and new products are launched in an orderly manner. 3) The cost control ability was continuously optimized, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent increased significantly. Based on the promotion expectation of new products such as yubai angel, we expect that the company will realize a net profit of RMB 1.430/2.085/2.959 billion from 2022 to 2024, and the current valuation corresponds to 74 times PE in 22 years Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) : steady growth of four-wheel drive. 1) Raw material production: the leading position is stable and the production capacity is released in an orderly manner. 2) Medical terminal: Technology endorsement, brand growth, new products help market expansion. 3) Four functions of fine skin care products: improving the profitability of skin care brands. 4) Functional food: in the first year of business, the brand pattern was initially opened. We expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 985 / 1337 / 1868 million from 2022 to 2024, and the current valuation corresponds to 59 times PE in 22 years. It is suggested to pay attention to era angel, Yonghe medical, Yisi health and Sihuan medicine. The current valuation corresponds to 48 / 26 / 18 / 26 times PE in 22 years respectively.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the terminal demand; Industry competition intensifies; The promotion of new products was less than expected.
