Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the sales data of real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year in March, and the local policies continued to be loose
This week, we focused on the sales ranking data of real estate enterprises in March. The month on month growth rate of equity sales was lower than that in the past. The data of a single month with a year-on-year caliber was further downward, which was suppressed by the epidemic and sentiment, and the recovery of industry fundamentals was slow. In terms of policy, many cities have relaxed the lower limit sales and purchase restriction policies of “implementing policies for cities”.
The turnover and supply picked up month on month in March, but the year-on-year growth rate was still low. According to Kerui’s sales data, we selected 45 cities in the first, second and third tier. In March 2022, the overall transaction area decreased by 46.3% year-on-year and increased by 39.8% month on month. The sales of commercial housing is still sluggish, but the market sales area increased month on month due to the improvement of the recent policy environment and the impact of the low base in February. From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, the supply-demand ratio in March was 0.86, and the supply of commercial housing market rebounded. The first and second tier cities performed slightly better than the third tier cities, but the year-on-year growth rate of cities at all levels showed a downward trend. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of first tier cities fell sharply, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, and the year-on-year growth rate of sales area fell sharply in March.
According to the statistics of the top 50 real estate enterprises, the year-on-year growth rate of equity sales of real estate enterprises further decreased in March. The top 50 real estate enterprises in equity sales grew by – 56% year-on-year in March, down 6 percentage points from the previous month. Among the top 50 real estate enterprises, except for two new real estate enterprises, the growth rate of equity sales of other real estate enterprises in a single month was negative year-on-year. From the perspective of marginal change, the year-on-year negative growth narrowed 16 real estate enterprises and reduced 9 real estate enterprises by less than 10 percentage points.
From the perspective of real estate enterprises of different sizes, the head real estate enterprises have the best performance. The total equity sales of top 10 real estate enterprises decreased by 48% year on year, increased by 45% month on month, decreased by 48% year on year, increased by 21% month on month, decreased by 69% year on year and decreased by 9% month on month. The sales of head real estate enterprises are significantly better than those of waist real estate enterprises.
From the absolute value of equity sales, country garden, Vanke, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , CNOOC, rongchuang, China Resources, China Merchants, Jindi, Greenland and Longhu ranked among the top 10 in equity sales. State owned enterprises or real estate enterprises with state-owned assets background have basically occupied the top position of sales ranking. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth of equity sales of real estate enterprises in March, the leading real estate enterprises also performed well, with Jindi, Greentown, poly and Longhu at the forefront, and the tail echelon is still dominated by the recently affected real estate enterprises.
Housing fundamentals continued to be under pressure, leading to further relaxation of policies. Under the background of “implementing policies according to the city” and in combination with the actual situation of the local market, many cities relaxed the sales and purchase restrictions and other policies by varying degrees. Among them, Fuzhou and Harbin, cities with higher energy levels, have relaxed the purchase restrictions. In addition, Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, has also partially relaxed the sales restrictions in addition to the sales restrictions.
Under the influence of the epidemic and the slow recovery of industry sentiment, it will take some time for the industry and real estate enterprises to get out of the trough of fundamentals, but this speed is undoubtedly accelerating. Pay attention to some private enterprises with steady operation and relax the investment opportunities at the edge of the policy, which can play games with companies with rich land reserves in cities where the policy may be further relaxed. Tracking data (March 27-march 21):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities was – 57 PCT in one week and – 34 PCT in cumulative year-on-year, first tier cities – 40 PCT, – 29 PCT, second tier cities – 72 PCT, – 68 PCT, third tier cities – 7 PCT and + 14 PCT respectively.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 13 cities was – 37 PCT year-on-year in a single week and – 30 PCT year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is + 22 PCT year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 16 PCT year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 58 PCT year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 4.76%.
City market month on month: Beijing (+ 41 PCT), Shanghai (- 55 PCT), Guangzhou (- 4 PCT), Nanjing (- 4 PCT), Hangzhou (+ 23 PCT), Wuhan (+ 45 PCT)
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Greentown China, etc. under the product-oriented logic. With the further confirmation at the bottom of the policy, attention can be paid to the repair opportunities of high-quality private enterprises, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, and some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default.
