Key investment points:
Power coal prices rose and fell in March, with the highest increase of 41% in the month. On March 10, the closing price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port hit a phased high of 1664 yuan / ton, up 41% from the beginning of March; As of April 2, it has dropped to 1295 yuan / ton.
There are three reasons for the recent rise in coal price volatility: first, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the global coal market. International coal prices have risen sharply. The spot price of thermal coal in ara port in Europe has increased by about $87 / ton on a weekly basis. Japan and South Korea have suspended Russian coal procurement, making the supply-demand relationship in the coal market more tense; Second, the supply and demand of coal is tight, and the inventory is low. As of March 25, the inventory of the four ports around the Bohai Sea was 1888.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 475.6 tons in 2021, and the coal inventory in March was at the low level of the whole year. The strong short-term demand and tight supply and demand are the main supporting factors for the rise of coal prices. Third, China’s epidemic rebounded on a large scale, and the strict prevention and control of the epidemic brought transportation bottlenecks. Since March, the epidemic situation in China has rebounded in a large scale, and strict epidemic prevention and control has led to the decline of automobile transportation efficiency; At the same time, the recent rise in oil prices has also significantly increased transportation costs, further raising coal prices.
Under the basic tone of ensuring supply, the coal price supervision is becoming stricter, and it is optimistic that the subsequent coal price decline + the performance rate of long-term cooperation will be improved. From April 2022, the national development and Reform Commission will begin to implement the coal market price monitoring plan and the coal production cost investigation plan issued earlier, and the coal price supervision will be further tightened. In terms of fundamentals, from January to February 2022, the national raw coal output was 687 million tons, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than that in the same period last year. Looking forward to the second quarter, the periodic decline in the demand for thermal coal after the heating period is inevitable, and the subsequent marginal easing of supply and demand is expected to bring the spot price down. According to the notice of the national development and Reform Commission, the coal long-term association price will be implemented from May 1, and the improvement of the performance rate of the long-term association is expected to further alleviate the cost side pressure of power enterprises.
According to our calculation, for every 10% increase in the proportion of long-term cooperation, the cost of coal-fired kwh will decrease by about 0.02 yuan / kWh. Assuming that the spot price of thermal coal in the second quarter is 1300 yuan / ton and the long-term cooperative price is 720 yuan / ton, the average coal consumption for power supply is 307g / kWh, and the kWh cost is 0.3946 yuan / kWh under the condition of 50% long-term cooperative performance rate. When the long-term cooperative performance rate is increased from 50% to 100%, the kWh cost is expected to drop to 0.2813 yuan / kWh. In the second quarter of 2022, it is assumed that the power generation in the second quarter of the second quarter of 2022 will be the same as the same period last year in the same period of the same period last year in the same period of the second quarter of 2022. After considering the tax rate and minority shareholders’ profit and loss, the second quarter of the second quarter of the second quarter, the second quarter of the second quarter of the second quarter of 2022, and the tax rate and the minority shareholders’ profit and loss, if the long-term agreement ratio increases by 10% after the long-term agreement ratio increases by 10%, such as Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 27 \ \rmb155 million and RMB 126 million.
Investment suggestion: for the industry, the periodic decline in the demand for thermal coal after the heating period is inevitable, the tightening of coal supervision and the subsequent loose margin of supply and demand, and the spot price of coal is expected to move down. At the same time, the improvement of the performance rate of Changxie coal will effectively alleviate the cost of power enterprises and improve profitability. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating.
In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to recommend Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , and it is suggested to pay attention to the thermal power targets that are expected to improve profits Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China power, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , CGN new energy.
Risk warning: focus on the improvement of the company’s performance as expected; Electricity price decline risk; Risk of policy change; The performance of the long-term coal association is less than expected; Market competition intensifies.
