Event:
In March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat.
Key investment points:
The edge of the general equipment chain has warmed up, and there are worries about the sustainability of demand under the replenishment inventory logic. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2022, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output increased by 29.6% year-on-year; Other industrial chains, including machine tools, laser cutting equipment, injection molding machines, speed reducers and other micro display Q1 orders, have improved compared with the second half of 2021. It is unanimously recognized that more is from the short-term replenishment of inventory. The general equipment chain has a marginal recovery as a whole. Considering the economic pressure and the impact of the short-term epidemic, the manufacturing investment continues to be under pressure. The PMI data in March was verified, In the direction, it is suggested to pay attention to the manufacturers of laser operation control system Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) , domestic tool faucet Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , others include reducer faucet Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) , injection molding machine faucet Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , etc.
The new orders of lithium battery equipment Q1 are in the off-season, and the annual report repair and order increase are highly uncertain. In 2021, under the background of accelerating the sales penetration of new energy vehicles, the expansion of power batteries accelerated, and the orders of lithium battery equipment companies increased. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, combined with the main production expansion plans of major downstream power battery manufacturers and the gap in the effective capacity of power batteries under the measurement of supply and demand, the orders of lithium battery equipment sector are still expected to maintain a high increase in 2022. At the same time, the performance of listed companies this year is expected to be greatly released under the front cost. Accordingly, we also see the introduction of higher equity incentive unlocking conditions of corresponding companies. It is suggested to focus on Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , etc. with good competition pattern and great flexibility.
The marginal growth rate of silicon wafer and module end of photovoltaic equipment slows down, and the technical route of benefiting from the cell end changes. 2021 is undoubtedly a big year for the expansion of all links of photovoltaic equipment. The core of the future expansion of silicon wafer and module end comes from the elasticity of terminal demand, and the promotion of large-scale penetration provides short-term incremental logic; The cost reduction and efficiency increase of the battery is still the mainstream. There are some differences in technical schemes such as TOPCON hjt. The core lies in the path, space and rhythm of the decline of their cost and efficiency. It is suggested to focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , etc.
The demand for third-party detection and measurement expanded steadily, and the performance of instrument and service business was high. The demand for third-party testing continues to expand steadily in the context of consumption and manufacturing upgrading. Like the field of equipment and materials, the upstream high-end instruments and meters also face the problem of "neck sticking". Localization will be the main line, and the downstream service commodity brand will be the most core competitiveness. The head company and customers have high stickiness and strong performance stability. It is suggested to focus on service providers: Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) , Guangzhou Grg Metrology&Test Co.Ltd(002967) , Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) and instruments: Uni-Trend Technology (China) Co.Ltd(688628) , dingyang technology, etc.
From bottom to top, it is suggested to focus on Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , Suzhou Tztek Technology Co.Ltd(688003) , etc. We believe that the performance of the company is very high in the long term (; The X-ray flat panel detector is similar to Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , and its performance is expected to accelerate under the two main themes of new product expansion and domestic substitution; Under the logic of new product cycle, Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) (operation class Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , transformer PHM), Suzhou Tztek Technology Co.Ltd(688003) (3C defect detection equipment, LDI, AVI equipment in PCB field, driverless, etc.) deserve attention.
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give the industry a "neutral" rating. We believe that on the whole, the midstream machinery sector bears the pressure of demand slowdown and upstream inflation. From the perspective of investment direction selection, on the one hand, we pay attention to the bottom-up immunity from the above two dimensions; In addition, the launch of new products and technologies is still the key to the stock price catalysis. We suggest focusing on the progress of new technologies and products in relevant fields / stocks.
Risk tip: the epidemic control in the world is less than expected, and the investment boom in China's manufacturing industry continues to decline. Focus on the company's new product fulfillment less than expected, the company's order growth less than expected, the company's performance growth less than expected, the intensification of the company's competition pattern, and the risk of sharp fluctuations in exchange rate and freight.
