This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 150.84, down 0.06 month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Investment suggestion: leading enterprises usher in the period of strategic layout.
With the recent sharp rise in Brent crude oil price and the rebound in spring demand, the price of chemical products has ushered in a general rise, and the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry monitored by us has rebounded again. We believe that at the current time point, the leading enterprises in the chemical industry have entered the period of strategic layout. From the perspective of lengthening history, the prosperity of the chemical industry has rebounded since 2016. From the perspective of the large capacity cycle, it is still in the upward period of the capacity cycle. The supply side reform plays a key role in suppressing the capacity expansion, and the demand side fluctuations have brought periodic inventory cycle fluctuations, such as the price decline caused by the decline in demand from the second half of 2018 to the beginning of 2019 and the decline caused by the covid-19 epidemic in the beginning of 2020, In the second half of 2022, the demand caused by the real estate impact declined. However, from the supply side, the capital expenditure of the overall chemical listed companies is still limited by policies and cannot be released smoothly. The final result is that the profit center of chemical products continues to rise, and the net interest center of almost major chemical leading enterprises gradually rises. At the current time point, China’s stable economic policy continues to increase, the decline in China’s demand is expected to gradually ease, the foreign covid-19 epidemic prevention policy is gradually relaxed, and the demand is rising again. However, under the dual carbon background, the capital expenditure of the global chemical industry is still suppressed, and the prosperity of the chemical industry is expected to continue to rise. From the perspective of quantity, with the introduction of China’s stable economic policy, some policies previously restricting the capital expenditure of leading enterprises are expected to be adjusted. It has been seen that the energy consumption of raw materials does not occupy the energy consumption index, the probability of new production capacity of leading enterprises being approved this year has increased, and the long-term growth expectation has reappeared, but the capacity expansion of the whole industry is still suppressed. In 2021, some leading chemical enterprises have recalled some share prices. From the perspective of three years, with the implementation of the project, the profits of leading chemical enterprises are expected to enter the growth track again and usher in a good opportunity for layout.
At the same time, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated and prices will be gradually transmitted to the downstream. The new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries and usher in a good opportunity for development.
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key, and innovation can continue to grow. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenses reached 3.168 billion yuan, an increase of 55.07% year-on-year; By the end of 2021, the company’s construction in progress had reached 29.352 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the fourth quarter had reached 8.054 billion yuan, reaching a record high. The company’s new production capacity has been promoted in an orderly manner. In 2021, Sichuan Meishan base 60000 T / a PBAT biodegradable polyester project and 10000 t / a lithium battery ternary cathode battery material project have been successfully put into operation; 400000 T / a MDI project of Fujian base and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a MDI project of Ningbo base are under continuous construction; The company invested 1.927 billion yuan to build a 250000 T / a TDI expansion project in Fujian Industrial Park. The project and Fujian 800000 T / a PVC project have been started on February 7, 2022, of which the TDI project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. With new projects reaching production capacity one after another, the company’s competitive advantage is expected to continue to enhance. Under the double carbon background, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ‘s MDI, as an excellent thermal insulation material, is expected to usher in a period of demand explosion. Because the company has the ability of R & D and innovation, can expand capacity and grow without worry, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) .
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The prosperity of large-scale refining and chemical projects itself is at the middle and lower level in history. At present, it is gradually extending to the downstream. A series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented and the growth capacity will rise again. Enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , etc. are recommended. Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. The route of importing low-cost ethane from the United States to produce low-carbon olefins has been opened. The company is expected to continue to expand production capacity and expand downstream with low-cost raw materials, which deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of the policy on energy consumption of raw materials, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , etc. is prominent.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q4 is the lowest point of the industry, and the profit of 2022q1 tire industry began to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply contracted, and small and medium-sized tire enterprises began to shut down. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, the operating rate of China’s semi steel tire enterprises this week was 74.75%, up 2.37 percentage points from last week and down 0.02 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 58.9%, up 2.68 percentage points from last week and down 19.83 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, China’s all steel tire market is advancing well, and the market trading is gradually improving; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. According to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port this week was US $1588870/feu, a month on week increase of – 0.85%; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $1738630/feu, 0.16% month on week; The FBX index from China to Europe was $1231400/feu, down – 3.34% from last week. Third, in December 2021, China’s monthly output of commercial vehicles was 380000, an increase of 7.7% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.91 million, an increase of 12.5% month on month, and the output of trucks was 331000, an increase of 6.9% month on month. The bottom of the tire is reversed. Under the background of supply contraction and demand improvement, according to incomplete statistics of China tire commercial WeChat official account, 32 tire enterprises announced the price increase in 2022. Overall, the price increase of this round is more than 2%-5%, and the highest increase is 10%. Nine tire enterprises in foreign markets have announced price increases, with a maximum price increase of 16%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channel strength, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additive enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) , conveyor belt enterprises Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continues to rise. According to Zhuo Chuang information, it has increased from 360 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 647.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 80%; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 35200 yuan / ton, up 43% from 24700 yuan / ton in August 2021; Enterprises with industrial chain integration will benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August 2021, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved.
In the first half of 2022, iron phosphate of Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) will be put into operation, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional fertilizer industry to new energy materials. 35 Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
At the same time, recommend Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , the rising price of sugar substitutes Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , which can maintain performance growth under the pressure of rising raw material prices, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , which expand to new energy materials.
At present, we believe that China’s leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value level of foreign giants may not be the ceiling of Chinese Enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, expanding in multiple categories and marching towards a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original packaging replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, pointed to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , the top five in the global tire industry in 2030, and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) with high starting point, high standard and high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still underrated. For example, the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \ , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , rubber auxiliary faucet Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) For a long- 7 , plant growth regulator faucet Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide faucet Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , spandex and adipic acid faucet Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) Organic fine chemicals leader Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , oil chemical leader Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) etc.
U.S. Commerce Department of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the local time 2020. On May 15, 2020, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020 May 15, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020 May 15, 2020, the local time of the local time of the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement said that it would comprehensively restrict Huawei from purchasing semiconthat use U.S. software and technology to produce semiconthat uses U.S. software and technology. The strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent, and the strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent. It is suggested to focus on the proposal to focus attention on companies such as Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83838383838323 the. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 22250 yuan / ton on April 1, down 250 yuan / ton from March 25; The price of aggregate MDI was 19500 yuan / ton, an increase of 350 yuan / ton compared with March 25. According to China chemical industry WeChat official account, in March 28th, Wanhua new material low carbon industrial project (phase I) held a centralized launching ceremony, with a total investment of 31 billion 600 million yuan, mainly producing propane dehydrogenation and olefin downstream products. The plan is put into operation in 2024, and the output value is about 27 billion yuan, and profits and taxes 5 billion 500 million yuan. On March 31, the official website of Yantai Economic and Technological Development Zone government released the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane industrial chain integration – social stability risk analysis report of ethylene II project for public participation and information publicity. Recently, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) special copolymerized polycarbonate (PC) project was successfully put into operation, and the first siloxane PC product with high silicon content (20%) was officially launched. This is the first industrialized product of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) in the field of special engineering plastics. It adopts the production technology independently developed by Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and the product performance has reached the international advanced level. The successful production of special copolymerized PC project is an important milestone in the development of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) pc industrial chain and marks the further improvement of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) high-quality polymer industrial chain. According to China Chemical daily, on March 28, Zhejiang Baowan Shaoxing Keqiao raw silk project was officially launched, laying a solid foundation for Baowu carbon industry to build a complete carbon fiber industrial chain and enhance the core competitiveness of carbon fiber production.
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port this week was US $1588870/feu, down – 0.85% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $1738630/feu, 0.16% month on week; The FBX index from China to Europe was $1231400/feu, down – 3.34% from last week. According to tnsc, as of March 31, 2022, the freight from Thailand to Europe was $11948 / feu, a month on month increase of – 23.15% over the same period in February; The freight from Thailand to the west of the United States was US $12650 / feu, unchanged month on month in February; The freight from Thailand to the east of the United States was US $16745 / feu, unchanged month on month in February. On April 2, 2022, the company announced that the company would increase the capital of Jilin Linglong, the implementation subject of the “Changchun annual output of 1.2 million all steel radial tires and 3 million semi steel radial tires production project” with the raised capital of 1 billion yuan. The capital increase is stored in the special account for the supervision of the raised funds, which is specially used for the construction of the production project with an annual output of 1.2 million all steel radial tires and 3 million semi steel radial tires in Changchun.
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] on March 31, 2022, Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) issued a progress announcement on providing guarantees to subsidiaries. According to the needs of business development, Sailun (Dongying) Tire Co., Ltd. has carried out credit cooperation with relevant commercial banks. On March 30, 2022, the company signed the maximum guarantee contract with the commercial bank to provide joint and several liability guarantee for relevant cooperation.
The amount involved in this guarantee and the signing time of the contract are within the scope of the above-mentioned review, and there is no need to perform the review procedures again. On April 1, 2022, the company announced its annual report for 2021: the company achieved an operating revenue of 17.998 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 16.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.64%; The net cash flow from operating activities was 837 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.56%.
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] on March 28, Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] said on the interactive platform that in 2021, after strict review by the headquarters of the German Volkswagen Group, the company obtained the global official supplier qualification of the German Volkswagen Group at one time, realizing a major breakthrough in supporting high-end main engine plants. At present, the company is cooperating and promoting projects with the German Volkswagen, BMW and Audi.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament on March 31 was 26.2 days, down 1.1 days month on month; Pta4’s inventory on January 1 was 2.895 million tons, down 165000 tons month on month. On April 1, the price of polyester filament FDY was 8450 yuan / ton, down 325 yuan / ton from March 25; On April 1, PTA price was 6080 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton from March 25. On April 1, the company issued an announcement on the progress of share repurchase. As of March 31, 2022, the company had repurchased 32595900 shares through centralized bidding, accounting for 0.46% of the total share capital of the company, and the amount paid was 714 million yuan.
[ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] on April 2, the company issued an announcement on the progress of repurchasing the company’s shares. As of March 31, 2022, the company has repurchased 7.5546 million shares of the company’s shares in the form of centralized bidding transaction, accounting for 0.0746% of the company’s total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 109 million yuan.
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] on March 31, the company issued an announcement on the expiration and implementation of the reduction of shares held by shareholders holding more than 5%. Silk group has reduced 7.3171 million shares of the company through centralized bidding trading, with an average reduction price of 30.08 yuan / share, a reduction proportion of 0.12%, and the reduction period is years
