Main points
Market Review
Last week (2022.3.28-4.01), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43%, and the real estate sector rose 10.82%. The real estate sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.63 percentage points and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.39 percentage points. A-share real estate companies focused on Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) ( Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) . SZ), Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) ( Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) . SZ) increased significantly, up 22.83%, 20.12% and 18.89% respectively. Focus on H-share real estate companies jiazhaoye group (1638. HK) and times China Holdings (1233. HK) led the gains, with increases of 16.67% and 13.55% respectively.
Industry news
Quzhou canceled the purchase and sale restrictions. The Quzhou municipal government of Zhejiang Province announced the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of urban real estate industry. Non registered residence households, individual businesses and enterprises invested or held by natural persons are considered to be the relevant policies of registered residence in this Municipality. After the issuance of the notice, the new commercial housing in the newly transferred land in the urban area and the new commercial housing of 144 square meters and above in the transferred land that has not been signed online are not limited to sale, except as specially agreed in the land transfer announcement. The sales of top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline. According to Kerui data, from January to March, Top100 real estate enterprises achieved full-scale sales of 1.63 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 47.07%, and a full-scale sales area of 107 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 49.09%. In a single month in March, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved a full caliber sales amount of 579.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.60% and a month on month increase of 25.03%; The full caliber sales area was 36.366 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 57.16% and a month on month increase of 12.13%. Nanjing plans to supply 869 hectares of residential land and 66 hectares of rental residential land in 2022. Nanjing plans to supply 869 hectares of residential land in 2022, which is no less than the average transaction volume in recent five years (20172021).
Investment advice
The credit environment still needs to be improved, the market confidence needs to be continuously repaired, the Matthew effect of capital is prominent, and the enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) the leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and sustainable land acquisition in the first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and have diversified land acquisition methods, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc; (3) Leading enterprises in the property management industry and enterprises that layout high-quality segments of the property management industry, such as Country Garden Service (6098. HK), Xincheng Yue service (1755. HK), China Resources Vientiane life (1209. HK), Baolong Commerce (9909. HK) and Xingsheng Commerce (6668. HK).
Risk tips
Tightening of real estate regulation policies; Real estate sales fell short of expectations.
