Key investment points
Key events of this week: 1) Zhongfu Shenying, a carbon fiber leader, will be listed on the science and Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 6 (Wednesday): the issue price is 29.33 yuan / share, corresponding to the total market value of 26.397 billion yuan, and the P / E ratio of (Unaudited) return to parent net profit in 2020 and 2021 is 309.7/94.7 times. After listing, the company’s total A-share capital is 900 million shares, of which 68.844 million shares are shares without circulation restrictions and lock-in arrangements. 2) China Liansu’s profit is under short-term pressure, and the C-end leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) toughness is prominent: in 21 years, China Liansu has achieved revenue and net profit attributable to its parent company of 32.06/3.04 billion, yoy + 14.2% / – 18.8%. The company’s profit is affected by the sharp rise in the price of 21h2 raw materials and the impairment of accounts receivable of real estate customers throughout the year, which is expected to have a short-term impact In Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) 21, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 6.39/1.22 billion, yoy + 25.1% / + 2.6%. After excluding the impact of amortization of equity incentive expenses and reduction of equity investment income, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 14.0%. The performance under cost pressure is still resilient. 3) Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) non cement business increased its contribution and maintained stable operation: the company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to parent company of 32.46 billion / 5.36 billion in 21 years, yoy + 10.6% / – 4.7%. Although the sharp rise in coal price caused the decline of gross profit per ton, the rapid development of the company’s non cement business contributed to the increment, and the cost control was effective, which kept the overall operation stable. 4) Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) main business volume and price rise together, optimistic about the continuous improvement of comprehensive strength: in 21 years, the revenue and net profit attributable to parent company reached 2.75/550 billion, yoy + 37.7% / + 216.8%. The simultaneous rise of main business volume and price of glass fiber promoted the high growth of performance. In the follow-up, we will see the continuation of glass fiber boom and the improvement of profit of thermal power business. 5) 360 mu of land in phase I of Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) 700000 ton glass fiber composite intelligent manufacturing base project has been traded: the gradual implementation of 700000 ton project is expected to expand the company’s wind power yarn production capacity and further expand the product application field.
This week’s view: at the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of building materials & new materials investment. First, the prosperity and performance cashing are selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, gypsum board and cement are preferred for undervalued defense: the common feature is good cash flow and competition pattern; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, there is basically no downside risk in the industry under the support of cost, and there is an inflection point in float glass inventory, waiting for the price to stabilize and recover under the boost of demand. 1) In the field of new materials, the “limited overseas supply”, the explosion of demand in new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber, and China’s leading “grinding a sword in ten years”; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field; Zhongfu Shenying, the leader of carbon fiber, is expected to be listed and traded on April 6. It is suggested to focus on it and other targets of the carbon fiber industry chain, such as Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) etc. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 2) Brand building materials layout at the right time, waiting for the rose of time. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost. Recently, the “implementation of policies due to the city” is gradually making efforts, such as the sharp rise in the first auction heat in Hefei and the reduction of mortgage interest rates in many places. In the absence of significant improvement in real estate fundamentals, the policy continued to relax expectations, the credit risk previously faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand were repaired, and the sector rebounded as a whole. According to the historical resumption, the end of the general real estate policy corresponds to the end of the valuation of brand building materials. The end of this round of policy / valuation appears in 21q4. We expect the end of fundamentals to appear in 22q1. On the cost side, the reserves of raw materials with leading low price can generally cover 22q1, and the recent easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine or the reduction of oil price can focus on the subdivision track with high correlation between cost and oil price. 3) The cost performance of cement allocation is high. The infrastructure development force and the marginal recovery of real estate under steady growth are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, the further coordination and optimization of cement core logic at the supply side in 22 years has generally strengthened the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year than last year, superimposing the high price center to maintain profitability and toughness. 4) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 5) The glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile and other strong support for demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, and the current safety margin is high. 6) There is still price elasticity at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass cycle. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the photovoltaic glass field; The price of glass began to rise slightly in the following week, and the price of glass began to rise slightly.
New materials: 1) carbon fiber boom continues: at the end of this week, the average price of carbon fiber market was 186000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 3.1), the average price of large tow was 145000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 1.5), and the average price of small tow was 225000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 4.5); At the weekend, the inventory of carbon fiber factory was 12 tons (Mom-1, yoy-2). The raw material acrylonitrile market rose slightly, and the price of precursor ran smoothly. We believe that the investment logic of the civil carbon fiber industry lies not only in the high demand growth (wind, light, hydrogen, etc.), but also in the “favorable climate, favorable location and harmonious people”. After seizing the opportunity to catch up, we will further expand the scale and cost advantage and realize the historical opportunity of “domestic substitution” and transcendence. Under the barriers of high technology, technology and capital, those who win the “raw silk” win the world. In the medium and long term, with reference to glass fiber, the industry penetration can be improved or rely on “price” for “demand”. We suggest paying attention to Zhongfu Shenying (the company is a high-quality leader in the carbon fiber industry, with obvious advantages in technology, scale and cost, products, talents and shareholders. It is expected that with the landing of the company’s IPO and the full commissioning of the 10000 ton line of Xining base, the company’s sales growth and cost decline will enter the fast lane, which will continue to promote the domestic substitution of carbon fiber). At the same time, we suggest paying attention to Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Hengshen shares; Carbon fiber equipment manufacturer Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; Downstream composite manufacturers Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Hongfa new materials, etc. 2) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, and the supply pattern of “two overseas + one large in China” has led to new controllable growth in the industry, and the supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance; The demand for semiconductor and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) . 3) Electronic cover glass: Chinese enterprises have achieved a technological breakthrough and passed the downstream certification. Under the condition of improving the penetration rate of domestic mobile phones and ensuring the safety of the supply chain, domestic substitution is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to CSG a, which has achieved the iterative breakthrough of electronic cover technology and completed the verification of downstream mobile phone manufacturers.
4) UTG: the penetration acceleration of folding screen mobile phones + alternative CPI trend is obvious, and the demand welcomes the outbreak; Take the lead in realizing technological breakthrough and benefiting mass production enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Brand building materials: under the pressure of the industry, the most difficult time for brand building materials has passed, and the leader welcomes light loading + counter trend expansion. 1) Since 21q4, “bottom of real estate policy + broad real estate market (affordable housing)” + landing of credit risk + stabilization and decline of raw material prices, and the expected bottom of brand building materials has been established. 2) From the 14-year and 18-year recovery, the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials. 3) Leading enterprises have strengthened their competitiveness and highlighted their growth (category expansion and application expansion) during the pressure period of the industry. The credit impairment of major enterprises has been implemented in 21 years, and the performance and valuation are expected to be restored in 22 years. Brand building materials, brand building materials, brand building materials, brand building materials. Leading enterprises have advantages in terms of brand / Channel / cost / capital, etc. both in terms of competitiveness and growth, they have the ability to cross cycles, and in terms of competitiveness and growth, they have the ability to go through cycles, and in the process of building the bottom, they are the first to break through the encirclement, seize the leading position, take the lead in the process of building the bottom, take the lead in the process of building the bottom, and actively lay out the leading. We recommend Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) \ , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu, Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) .
Under the expected warming of steady growth, the cost performance of cement sector allocation is prominent. We believe that although there is a small single digit decline in demand in 22 years, it is expected to remain at a high platform period of more than 2 billion tons. Under the contraction of demand, the willingness of enterprise supply coordination is expected to increase. The cross shareholding of leading enterprises is expected to jointly lead the optimization of the industry, and the coal price is still rising, which is expected to promote the price to remain high. In the medium and long term, the dual carbon policy and dual control of energy consumption promote the optimization of the industry pattern. The industry has entered the integration period, and competition and cooperation gradually replace competition. Leading enterprises actively distribute aggregate, commercial concrete and other markets to contribute to growth, and the cost performance is prominent at low valuations. This week, the national cement market price rose by 0.7% month on month. The price rise areas mainly include Beijing, Gansu and Shaanxi, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton; The falling areas are parts of Hubei, Chongqing and Guizhou, with a range of 10-30 yuan / ton. Given that it is difficult to end the impact of short-term epidemic prevention and control, and some enterprises have successively started or extended off peak production in order to alleviate the supply pressure, the cement price will maintain the shock adjustment trend in the later stage. This week, the national cement storage capacity ratio was 65.1%, with a month on month ratio of + 3.6pct and a year-on-year ratio of + 16.6pct. The shipment rate was 58.2%, with a month on month increase of + 2.3pct and a year-on-year increase of – 29.1pct. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to focus on Chinese building materials, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) .
Continue to focus on recommending the leader of China’s concrete water reducing agent industry Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) recommendation logic: the company’s production capacity planning is clear, and it is expected to continue to grow in the next three years, with a rising market share; The price of raw material ethylene oxide is running at a low level. At the end of September, the price increase of the company is gradually implemented, and the gross profit margin in 22 years may increase significantly; The company’s functional materials (such as anti crack and anti-seepage agent, wind power grouting material, etc.) maintain a high growth, and is expected to grow into an admixture platform enterprise.
Glass fiber: the industry cycle is weakened and the boom is expected to continue. This week, the average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn was 6100 yuan / ton (the same month on month, year-on-year – 17); The average price of electronic yarn G75 is 9375 yuan / ton (Mom – 625, yoy – 5525); The mainstream quotation of electronic cloth is 3.7 yuan / meter (flat month on month). We expect that the industry’s new roving / electronic yarn production capacity will be about 545 / 101000 tons respectively in 22 years, and the production line will be put into operation more dispersed. We expect that the marginal new production capacity of 22q1-22q4 will be 1.7/3.8/4.413000 tons / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that the global roving supply and demand will be in tight balance in 22 years, and the price boom is expected to continue under the low inventory level. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leading enterprises have core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leading enterprises in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced both from the perspective of increasing market share and continuous decline of cost. We expect that the profitability of the bottom leading enterprises in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending glass fiber leading enterprises China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
The price of photovoltaic glass tends to stabilize; Building glass prices continued to fall. In terms of photovoltaic glass, the mainstream quotation of 3.2mm coating at the end of this week was 26 yuan / square (the same month on month, year-on-year – 32%); The inventory days are about 19.1 days (Mom – 9%, yoy – 10%), and the production capacity is 48000 T / D (mom + 7%, yoy + 42%). For photovoltaic glass, the new supply under the dual control of energy consumption may be less than expected, and the price at the bottom of the industrial cycle may be upward elastic. Optimistic about the revenue proportion of traditional glass enterprises in the field of photovoltaic glass and improve their cost competitiveness. The average price of float glass this week is 2059 yuan / ton (Mom – 54, yoy – 220); Weekend inventory of 56.2 million heavy containers (Mom – 25, yoy + 2634); The production capacity of glass in production is 173000 T / D (unchanged month on month). China’s float glass market rose and fell this week, with regional differences. Recently, downstream processing plants in the southern region have made some replenishment, the production and sales in Central China, East China and southwest China have improved, and the prices of some manufacturers have increased slightly after the price reduction. The northern region operates without temperature and fire, and the downstream replenishment power is temporarily insufficient. Order improvement is general, and attention is paid to the continuity of transaction. We believe that under the “resilience” of real estate, we are expected to maintain the delivery of glass. On the supply side, considering the high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the proportion of kiln age production capacity of 8-10 years / 10-12 years / more than 12 years is 13.2% / 8.3% / 5.9% respectively. Cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. We expect the glass price to remain at a good level throughout the year. Continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and suggest paying attention to Xinyi Glass, CSG a, Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , etc; At the same time, we continue to recommend photovoltaic glass leading Xinyi solar energy and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Demand is lower than expected; Excessive new capacity; Poor capital turnover.
