Weekly view:
Four places announced the first round of centralized land supply in 2022: 1) on March 31, Guangzhou announced that 18 plots were launched in the first round of centralized land supply, with a total capacity of 2.76 million square meters; 2) On March 31, Shenzhen listed 8 residential land in the first round of centralized land supply, with a total construction area of about 1070600 m2, which was sold at 15:00 on April 29; 3) On March 31, Jinan announced the transfer of 32 plots in the first round of centralized land supply, with a total transfer area of 972800 m2; 4) On March 28, Suzhou announced 15 commercial residential plots listed in the first round of centralized land supply, with a total transfer area of 826800 square meters. The bidding began on May 9.
The local auction rules have been significantly improved, the quality of plots has been significantly improved, and high-quality real estate enterprises have ushered in the window period of land acquisition. In terms of location, the plots of land in Guangzhou are mainly concentrated in the Sixth Central District. Suzhou has listed high-quality plots in Suzhou Pingjiang new town, Hudong Industrial Park and Shishan sector of high tech Zone; In terms of profit margin, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have relaxed the price limit requirements; From the perspective of participation threshold, Jinan and Suzhou reduced the margin ratio.
The first round of centralized land supply between the two places ended smoothly: 1) on April 2, the first round of centralized land supply in Chengdu ended, and 44 of the 50 plots were successfully transferred, with a transaction premium rate of about 4.62%; 2) On March 31, Wuhan ended the first round of centralized land supply, and 10 of the 11 lands were successfully transferred, including 3 premium transactions and 1 Top fuse. Under the optimization of bidding rules, the results of local bidding in both places show a steady and good trend. Chengdu has relaxed the price limit and construction requirements for new houses, and Wuhan has no competition for construction and self-reliance. The reduction of land acquisition cost enhances the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the auction, which reflects that the project profit is the key for real estate enterprises to measure whether to acquire land.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in the continuous improvement of policies, and the recovery of the local auction market will drive the repair of the supply side, superimposing investment opportunities for the continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (03.26-04.01): 33 key monitoring cities, with a total transaction area of 3.177 million square meters, an increase of 7.1% over last week; In 2022, a total of 40.554 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 39.9%. Among them, 356000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, down 47.5% from last week, and 7.878 million square meters were sold in 2022, down 31.7% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.89 million square meters, up 37.5% from last week. In 2022, a total of 1.86 million square meters were sold, down 25.8% year-on-year; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 931000 square meters, an increase of 2% over the previous week. The cumulative volume of transactions in 2022 was 12.816 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 56.1%.
Land supply (03.21-03.27): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 18.03 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 92.91 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 46.4% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.53. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 9555 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 7060 yuan / m2, an increase of 2.7% month on month and 47% year-on-year.
Land transaction (03.21-03.27): the planned construction area of residential land transaction in Baicheng is 3.5 million square meters. In 2022, the cumulative transaction volume was 60.54 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 65.9%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 6764 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 42.1%, a year-on-year increase of 64.3%, and the overall premium rate was 5.3%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4130 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the premium rate was 3.5%, a decrease of 13.9 percentage points over the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
