Market review: in March 2022, Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 0.87%, outperforming CSI 300 index by 8.71%, ranking 4 in the whole industry market this month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to all A-Shares is 101%, the premium rate relative to all A-Shares excluding banks is 52%, and the premium rate relative to the CSI 300 index is 151%. In March, the largest increase in the pharmaceutical industry sub sector was pharmaceutical circulation (+ 24.5%), and the largest decrease was blood products (- 15.2%). Since the beginning of 2023, the Shanghai and Shenzhen pharmaceutical industry index has fallen by 3.074%, ranking the first since 2023, with a decline of 3.074%.
Performance + policy + valuation bottom, the industry ushered in a good opportunity for layout. In March 2022, the pharmaceutical sector continued to shake up the market, SW pharmaceuticals rose 0.87%, mainly because the “New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth)” introduced, vaccine + detection + small molecule oral medicine + Chinese medicine anti epidemic main line clear, the upstream and downstream industry chain benefit significantly. At the current time point, we are more optimistic about the pharmaceutical sector: 1) performance level: some companies disclose the business data from January to February, and the CXO enterprise performance express gradually discloses. Generally, the performance is good, and due to the influence of covid-19 small molecular medicine orders, the performance flexibility in 2022 is large; 2) Policy level: multiple negative policies in the early stage have been gradually digested. With the introduction of the “14th five year plan” in various sub fields of the pharmaceutical sector, relevant industries are expected to rebound; 3) Valuation level: the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 29 times, which has been gradually digested below the historical center. The valuation and position ratio are at a historical low, and the allocation cost performance is prominent.
We think that the best timing for the layout of the pharmaceutical sector has been ushered in in the near future, and we think that the recent pharmaceutical sector has ushered in the best timing point for the layout of the pharmaceutical sector. Combined with the two main lines of the annual strategy for 2022: “through medicacare” and “desesensitivity to the epidemic”, we suggest that investors focus on the layout opportunities of several sectors: on the one hand, it is suggested to add big market capitalization bibcock, such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) “and” desesensitivity. On the one hand, it is suggested that investors focus on the layout opportunities of several sectors: on the one hand, on the one hand, it is suggested to suggest to add big market capitalization bibcock, such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) etc; On the other hand, we continue to recommend three directions: 1) traditional Chinese medicine sector: favorable marginal policy + price increase + reform of state-owned enterprises, and recommend Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc; 2) Independent and controllable supply chain: international conflicts further strengthen China’s willingness to realize domestic substitution in the supply chain, and recommend pharmaceutical machinery industry, such as Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , etc; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to the elastic stocks with PEG 1, such as Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) , Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) , etc. Finally, it is suggested to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities such as covid-19 drug / detection / vaccine industry chain.
Portfolio recommendation in April 2022
Elastic combination: elastic combination of elastic combination:: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) \ ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ).
The steady combination: ‘s Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ).
Risk warning: expected risk of drug price reduction; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
