Market Review
In the five trading days of last week (03280401), the CSI 300 rose 2.43%, and the building materials (CITIC) index rose 5.7%. Among the sub sectors, consumer building materials and cement were boosted by the sharp rise of real estate, the government was relatively large, and the income of glass fiber and other products was lower. Among individual stocks, Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) , Xiamen Wanli Stone Stock Co.Ltd(002785) , Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) , Hainan Ruize New Building Material Co.Ltd(002596) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) led the increase.
The real estate sales boom in March is still low, and the policy may continue to increase
We made statistics on the transaction area of second-hand houses in 13 representative cities (Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Xiamen, Dongguan, Yangzhou, Nanning, Foshan, Jinhua and Jiangmen) with complete second-hand house transaction data. The transaction area of second-hand houses in the above 13 cities decreased by 50.04% year-on-year in March, slightly larger than that in February. According to wind, the transaction area of 22m3 commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 47.1% year-on-year, with a total decrease of 36.2% in the first three months. We believe that the year-on-year decline in the transaction area of new houses and second-hand houses in March continues to expand compared with that in January / February, which reflects that there is still room to continue to strengthen the transmission of current real estate sales policies, and may also be related to the spread of epidemic diseases in many parts of the country in March. Last week, Qinhuangdao, Hebei, Quzhou, Zhejiang and other places successively relaxed the purchase and loan restriction policies. Fuzhou issued a document to inform that the provident fund can be used to pay the down payment for house purchase. We believe that more policies on urban real estate sales and loans are expected in the future to promote the recovery of real estate.
Continue to be optimistic about stable growth and fundamental reversal, and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass enterprises is at a low level. At present, they are in the period of accelerated resumption of work in spring, and the glass price is expected to gradually rise. This year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance, the unit profit of float glass is expected to be relatively stable, photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , etc; The pipeline recommends China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad shares, etc; Cement recommendations Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Glass fiber recommendation China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) etc;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
