The installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic has exceeded 100 million KW, and the parity economy has gradually emerged. ① In 2021, the installed capacity of distributed PV increased by 29gw (year-on-year + 89%), surpassing that of centralized PV for the first time, with a cumulative installed capacity of 108gw, of which the cumulative installed capacity of industrial, commercial and household distributed PV was 66 and 42GW respectively. At the same time, distributed photovoltaic has significant regionality, with 81% of the country's installed capacity concentrated in 9 provinces such as Shandong and Zhejiang. ② In 2022, the national subsidy declined comprehensively, and the growth of distributed photovoltaic installed capacity shifted from policy driven to market driven. At the module price of 1.8 yuan / W, we calculated that the cost of industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic and household photovoltaic systems was about 3.5-3.6 yuan / W and 3.2-3.3 yuan / W respectively.
Industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic: the total investment IRR is up to 14%, and those who master high-quality owner resources are the king. ① The storm of shutdown and power rationing + the rise of industrial and commercial electricity prices, and the industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic market has been fully activated. The return rate of the power station is considerable. We estimate that the IRR of the total investment in industrial and commercial photovoltaic power stations is as high as 14% when the owner consumes 75%. ② The power station holding mode is mainly divided into operator holding mode and industrial and commercial owner holding mode, corresponding to large high-quality industrial and commercial power enterprises and small industrial and commercial enterprises respectively. During this round of intensive investment in distributed PV, we are optimistic about the transformation of gas companies into comprehensive energy operators: a. the demand for carbon reduction in industrial parks is strong and energy consumption is stable, and the demand for installed capacity of distributed PV is strong; b. Relying on the park resources involved in the gas business to carry out the construction and operation of industrial and commercial photovoltaic power plants, the park management experience, operation and maintenance experience and team can be reused in the photovoltaic power generation business.
Household distributed photovoltaic: the "1-N" high-speed development stage is coming, and the channel capacity has built a core barrier. ① Central state-owned enterprises enter the household market with low-cost funds, the flexibility of private enterprises makes up the middle link of "capital farmers", the business model runs through, and the household photovoltaic market has entered the high-speed development stage of "1-N". ② We estimate that the total investment IRR of household photovoltaic power stations in nearly 1 / 3 prefecture level cities in China has exceeded 6%, and the installed capacity of household photovoltaic power stations is expected to reach 30-35gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 39% - 62%. ③ Many private enterprises have poured into the household photovoltaic EPC industry and opened the asset light operation mode. As an intermediate link between upstream funds and downstream farmers, it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises with strong channel construction and management ability and strong bottom party / capital connection ability.
Investment suggestion: the upsurge of distributed photovoltaic investment is revived, and low-cost funds enter the market to reconstruct the business model. In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to pay attention to [Hong Kong China smart energy], [ Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) ], [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ], [Shuifa Xingye energy] (joint coverage of building materials and public environmental protection), and it is suggested to pay attention to [ Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ] (coverage of Dianxin group), [ Skyworth Group] (coverage of household appliances group), [ Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) ].
Risk tips: the policy promotion is not as expected, the risk of intensified competition, the risk of electricity price decline, the risk of light abandonment and power restriction, the risk of component price fluctuation, the risk of epidemic aggravation, and the calculation is subjective for reference only.
