Key investment points
Key recommendations focus on the following: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) forthe \ , China water, Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) , Yutong Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(600817) , Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) , Fujian Longma Environmental Sanitation Equipment Co.Ltd(603686) , China Resourcesand Environment Co.Ltd(600217) .
Suggestions for attention: Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) , China Tianying Inc(000035) , conch entrepreneurship, Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008)
Latest view: the first quarterly report focuses on sustainable growth renewable resources & cash flow value revaluation and environmental protection targets. 1) Sustainable growth renewable resources, focusing on: power battery reuse [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ] pe20 times in 2022, continuous doubling of treatment scale in 20202021, and three times of scale expansion in 20222024; Hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ] in 2022, it is considered to increase pe19 times, increase by 30% for five years from 2016 to 2021 + continue in the future, and the operating profit accounts for 60% +. 2) Policy driven revaluation of cash flow value. In 2022, the budget of other items of the central government fund increased by more than 360 billion yuan, and the renewable energy stock subsidy is expected to be solved at one time. Pay attention to the cashing of waste incineration stock subsidy, improve the stock cash flow and release the growth power. It is suggested to pay attention to: the leading country in the [Everbright environment] industry makes up the arrears of about 8.1 billion yuan, and the stock subsidy can be solved in time. When the company’s own development cycle is superimposed and the cash flow is improved, the environmental value of leading h Everbright returns; [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ] the arrears paid by the state account for 18% of the net assets of 2021q3 and 50% of the revenue in 2020. Before the improvement of the elasticity of the asset structure.
Carbon neutral builds the investment framework of environmental protection industry from the front end, middle end and back end, and is bullish on the long-term rise of EU carbon price and CCER in the short term. 1) Front end energy substitution: adjust the energy structure and pay attention to the demand for environmental sanitation new energy equipment and renewable energy substitution. 2) Middle end energy conservation and emission reduction: promote industrial transformation and pay attention to energy conservation management & Application of emission reduction equipment. 3) Back end recycling: promote the recycling of renewable resources such as waste classification, waste household appliances / cars and hazardous waste recycling. 4) Carbon trading: encourage the development of CCER projects such as renewable energy, methane utilization and forestry carbon sequestration. The development of China’s carbon market is similar to that of the European Union. It already has the prototype of total amount control & market regulation mechanism. At present, there is much room to improve the transaction scale and covering industries, and the carbon price is far lower than overseas. The tightening of total amount drives the carbon price to rise for a long time. The approval of CCER demand release is expected to restart. We expect the scarcity price of CCER to rise in the near future.
Steady growth + new tools + new fields, comprehensively recommend low-carbon environmental protection assets: 1) environmental asset value + Growth Logic 2.0: a) steady growth + new tools + new fields, from single dimension to combination. ① Policy +: double carbon macro policy, strengthening infrastructure investment; ② Mode +: REITs improves the return on assets and opens the growth ceiling; ③ Space +: the second growth curve. B) The value of cash flow driven by marketization is further highlighted: policy tools such as CCER green power, waste incineration bidding and marketization of water price enhance the certainty of return and improve cash flow. 2) Under the new logic, the valuation anchor has been significantly improved: undervalued + low position + growth, improved model and cash flow, and improved valuation. 3) Suggestions: a) steady growth / high dividend / REITs: waste incineration [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ], water + pipe network [ Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) ] [ Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) ], water supply price increase + direct drinking water [China water]. B) New track: ① renewable resources: the most economical carbon premium + price increase of resource products: hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ], wine tank recycling [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ], power battery recycling [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ], recycled plastics [ Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) ] [ Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) ]; ② Hydrogen energy: [ Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) ]; ③ High matte: [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ].
Latest research: Comments on the 2021 annual report of Country Garden Services: the performance increased by 50.2%, and the brand expansion & acquisition was strong Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) comments on the annual report of 2021: the state subsidy is carefully confirmed and the profitability is stable; Comments on the 2021 annual report of Beikong urban resources: the real performance increased by 55.7%, and the profit of environmental services continued to improve Yutong Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(600817) 2021 annual report comments: parent ownership increased by 33.55%, and the leading advantage was strengthened Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) 2021 annual report comments: solid waste revenue increased by 62.62%, gas pressure is expected to be favorable Comments on Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) 2021 annual report: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 39%, and the net operating cash flow increased by 124%, which improved significantly Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) comments on the restricted stock incentive plan in 2022: the implementation of equity incentive is subject to a four-year long-term assessment, and attention is paid to the production progress of overseas projects;
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the interest rate rises more than expected, and the fiscal expenditure is lower than expected
