One week’s view: the 14th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine promotes the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry in an all-round way
On March 29, the general office of the State Council issued the 14th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine (hereinafter referred to as the 14th five year plan). Based on the accelerated improvement of the top-level design for the development of traditional Chinese medicine in the 13th five year plan, the continuous optimization of the policy environment and the increasing support, the general office of the State Council put forward development requirements for the existing problems and put forward development goals for traditional Chinese medicine services, talent team, inheritance and innovation and high-quality industrial development, Promote the high-quality development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. We believe that the 14th five year plan will comprehensively promote the healthy and long-term development of traditional Chinese medicine from the aspects of clinical research and development, medical service, traditional Chinese medicine planting, payment and drainage.
One week’s view: “antigen screening, nucleic acid diagnosis”, expansion of application scenarios of antigen detection under the new situation of anti epidemic
In order to further optimize the covid-19 detection strategy and serve the needs of epidemic prevention and control, the notice on printing and distributing the covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial) will add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection, taking the antigen detection in Shanghai on April 3 as an example, which will effectively reduce the close connection and alleviate the pressure of nucleic acid detection. In the travel scenario, from April 2, in addition to the 48h nucleic acid test, the policy of leaving Shanghai also needs to supplement the 24h antigen test as the negative proof to further open the application scenario of antigen test. At present, the 24 approved antigen detection kit manufacturers are expected to obtain the first mover advantage and achieve large revenue. On the upstream raw material side: with a complete range of products, companies in subdivided fields such as intensive cultivation of recombinant proteins and antibodies will directly benefit. The demand of high polymer consumables manufacturers producing antigen detection sampling tubes, especially those relying on the advantages of high polymer consumables production line technology and mold development, will promote the further release of production capacity. In the downstream retail terminal: the leading drugstore companies with the characteristics of wide distribution of stores are expected to increase the passenger flow of stores and boost the growth rate of the same store.
One week’s view: the growth rate of the same store has gradually warmed up, and retail pharmacies are expected to usher in performance improvement in Q2
By the end of 2021, the growth rate of the leading same store of retail pharmacies has recovered as a whole. The operation of 2022q1 drugstore is affected by certain epidemic situation, and the recovery rhythm of the same store growth rate has slowed down. Based on the 2021q2 base, we expect the same store growth rate of Q2 retail drugstore to return to the normal level in previous years, which is expected to improve month on month Q1 and achieve steady growth in performance. It is expected that the leading drugstore will continue to expand rapidly in 2022, and the new stores will continue to contribute to the company’s performance in the future. In addition, under the normalization of the epidemic, major pharmacies actively responded by increasing the proportion of high gross margin categories such as traditional Chinese medicine, exploring differentiated businesses such as cosmetics, and vigorously developing new retail. Major pharmacies have actively developed online channels and carried out new business models such as internet medical, B2C, o2o and new retail. Online business has increased rapidly. In the past two years, online sales revenue has achieved rapid growth year-on-year, providing vitality and performance increment for the company and contributing to sustainable growth. It is expected that the proportion of old stores and secondary new stores of retail pharmacies will increase in 2022, which is expected to usher in an inflection point of revenue and profit growth.
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Risk tip: the black swan incident and the deterioration of the epidemic situation in the industry affect production and operation.
