Energy storage:
1. On April 3, 2022, the national energy administration and the Ministry of science and Technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the "14th five year plan" for scientific and technological innovation in the energy field, putting forward the key tasks and development roadmap of energy storage technology. The road map points out: in 2023, break through the key technologies of large variable speed pumped storage units and switchgear; In 2025, complete the demonstration of large-scale air compression energy storage technology and iron chromium liquid flow battery technology; In 2025, the application demonstration of inertial rotation standby energy storage technology will be completed; Complete the integrated design and operation technology demonstration of source network load storage; In 2025, promote and apply the development and application of system integration technology of large-scale energy storage power station; In 2028, key technologies such as anti adhesion and anti-corrosion of seawater pumped storage units will be broken through. Focus on the demonstration and promotion of new energy storage technologies such as iron chromium liquid flow battery, compressed air and super capacitor, as well as the technological progress in the field of pumped storage.
2. Valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high at the end of November 2021, as of April 1, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 30%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on April 1, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 41 / 29 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 39 / 30 times.
3. Investment: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market's expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China's steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on April 1, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 25 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
