Core view
In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, and the multi-point flowering situation laid the foundation for the follow-up. In 2021, the global sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 109% and a penetration rate of 11.7%; The sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 3521000, with a year-on-year increase of 157.5%, and the penetration rate increased to 13.4%. In terms of sales structure, China is still the largest market in the world, accounting for half. The overall sales in China presents a dumbbell structure, with a high proportion of A00 and B-class and above models, and a low share of A-class vehicles with wider coverage. From the perspective of end users, the proportion of private market continues to increase, and shows the characteristics of accelerating penetration into the third and fourth tier cities and rural markets, which lays a solid foundation for the continuous improvement of medium and long-term new energy vehicle penetration.
Looking ahead, we believe that the driving force for the development of new energy vehicle industry has shifted from "policy driven" to "market led", and the market demand for new energy vehicles has begun to release stably without relying on the strong promotion of policies. In the past two years, the new energy vehicle market has achieved a stable transition in sales volume by relying on popular models. Looking at 2022 and the medium and long term, we believe that the continuous upgrading of models and consumers' acceptance of electrification are the strongest driving forces, focusing on the 800V high-voltage fast charging and power exchange mode to solve the problem of short-term energy supplement; Ultra high energy density cell to solve the problem of endurance; High level automatic driving can liberate hands more safely, open the gap with fuel vehicles, and superimpose the optimization and adjustment of policy side, so that the new energy vehicle market is healthier. The short-term terminal price rise is the result that the upstream raw material supply can not keep up with the explosive demand. After the accelerated release of supply, the material price returns to normal and the price is more stable.
We expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 5.4 million in 2022 and exceed 11 million in 2025. The short-term contradiction is the price rise and epidemic factors. The sales volume from April to June will be affected. After entering the second half of the year, the new consumer demand will pick up, superimposing the rush loading market at the end of the year. Car enterprises may give certain preferential space on the basis of the latest price to speed up the order collection. The monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year will rise one after another, maintaining the sales expectation of 5.4 million vehicles throughout the year. In the next few years, the established goal of car enterprises is still relatively optimistic. The price of raw materials will fall & the cost of battery technology will be reduced, the battery cost will enter the decline channel again, and the price will continue to be stable. Coupled with the substantial improvement of model competitiveness, we expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China is expected to exceed 11 million in 2025.
Investment proposal and investment object
We believe that the secondary price increase of new energy vehicles may suppress the short-term end consumer demand. Considering that each company digests the orders in hand, it is expected to be reflected after May to June. Under the condition of relatively clear contradiction between supply and demand in the short term, the scarce resources are concentrated to the leading enterprises, which is conducive to the continuous optimization of the industry pattern and the stronger pressure resistance of the leaders in all links. In the medium and long term, the general trend of new energy vehicles remains unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to the long-term certainty of the sector. From the perspective of direction, we are clearly optimistic about the battery sector. Recently, according to the feedback from the industry, the futures price has significantly corrected, and the Ministry of industry and information technology has also strengthened the upstream pricing management. The price of cobalt, nickel and lithium is at the top of history, which is expected to peak and fall in the short term, the cost pressure of battery is relieved, and there are expected to be sector repair opportunities.
It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of various segments of the industry, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , buy), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , not rated), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , buy), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ( Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , not rated), etc. In addition, continue to be optimistic about Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ( Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , buy) as the core target of energy storage lithium battery.
Risk tips
The control of epidemic situation fails to meet expectations, affecting production and delivery;
The price rise of new energy vehicles affects the car purchase demand of end consumers;
The price of cobalt, nickel and lithium remains high, and the profit of the industrial chain is uncertain.
The risk that changes in assumptions affect the measurement results.
