Main points:
Weekly gathering of scientific and technological views (Communication)
Unmanned delivery vehicles effectively solve the pain point of insufficient transport capacity in the “last kilometer”. At the initial stage of sealing and control, rider resources were tight and there was a risk of cross infection. Unmanned distribution vehicles appeared one after another on the streets of Shanghai, which effectively solved the pain point of insufficient transportation capacity. Since 2021, meituan auto delivery vehicle magic bag 20 has been in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Chengdu and Xiamen successively, cooperating with the local government, giving full play to the advantages of automatic distribution and participating in the scientific and technological anti epidemic work. As of September 2021, meituan automatic distribution vehicle has delivered nearly 100000 orders on the open road in Beijing, with an automatic driving mileage of more than 500000 kilometers. It has the preliminary ability of large-scale operation of automatic distribution. It is expected to realize the unmanned distribution service of real-time distribution at the end of the city in the next 3-5 years. Global e-commerce and logistics giants have arranged one after another, and unmanned distribution is also the fastest landing scene of automatic driving. From the perspective of economic benefits, according to Honeywell data, the cost of the last kilometer of distribution accounts for 53% of the whole distribution link, and there is a huge cost reduction space. Yole predicts that the average annual compound growth rate of unmanned distribution vehicles in the last kilometer of the world from 2020 to 2025 will be 98%. In addition, automatic distribution will improve the distribution efficiency and can complete the real-time distribution task of large weight and long distance in one way. From the perspective of scenarios, automatic delivery is the fastest landing scenario for automatic driving. The operation data and experience in the real scenario are fed back with the development of automatic driving technology, so as to better promote the development of automatic driving technology.
The perception ability of automatic driving is excellent, and the unmanned distribution vehicle adopts multi-sensor fusion scheme. Taking meituan magic bag 20 as an example, at the level of transportation capacity, its loading capacity reaches 150kg, the volume is nearly 540l, the single quantity of one-way distribution reaches 10, and the driving range of urban roads is 120km. At the configuration level, it is equipped with 3 lidars (velodyne angle radar is used on the left and right sides of the front of the car, and the pandar 64 lidar of Hesai technology is used on the roof), 19 cameras, 2 millimeter wave radars and 9 ultrasonic radars, which can realize obstacle recognition within the range of 5cm-150m, 360 degree real-time perception without dead angle, and excellent perception ability of automatic driving. The prospect of unmanned distribution is broad, driving the rapid growth of the sensor market. According to yole data, the sensor market driven by unmanned distribution will reach US $1.277 billion by 2026 and US $7.421 billion by 2031. According to the application scenarios, unmanned trucks are the main market for unmanned distribution sensors (78%), followed by road distribution vehicles (13%), of which the compound annual growth rates of road distribution vehicles and roadside distribution vehicles are 82% and 77% respectively, ranking second and third; By sensor category, by 2026, the market scale of lidar driven by unmanned distribution will reach US $639 million, the market scale of inertial navigation will reach US $308 million and the market scale of camera will reach US $225 million.
Investment advice
Unmanned distribution can effectively supplement the transportation capacity of the last kilometer in the short term and reduce the cost in the long term to realize the replacement of machines. It is expected to become an automatic driving explosion application. We’re optimistic that the sensor market will be driven by the rapid growth of the sensor market. We’re optimistic that no one will drive the sensor market to grow fast. The industry level suggests focusing on IOT modules, SOC chips, domain controllers, laser radar, navigation and inertial navigation, and cameras. The industry level suggests to focus on IOT modules, SOC chips, SOC chips, domain controllers, domain controllers, laser radar, navigation, navigation and inertial navigation, and cameras, cameras and other fields. The industry level recommends Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) 236 66, Shunyu optics, etc.
Risk tips
The cost reduction of unmanned distribution is less than expected; Autonomous driving faces policy and legal risks.
