\u3000\u3000[TableSummary]
Key investment points
This week (2022.3.28 – 2022.4.1, the same below): the architectural decoration sector (SW) rose or fell by 1.65% this week. In the same period, the CSI 3 million and wandequan a index rose or fell by 2.43% and 1.25% respectively, and the excess returns were – 0.78% and 0.40% respectively.
Comments on important industrial policies, event changes and data tracking: (1) the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that “steady growth should be placed in a more prominent position”: the national Standing Committee reiterated the annual economic growth target, “strengthen confidence, stick to the target, coordinate the policies of steady growth, structural adjustment and reform, and stabilize the economy early and fast”, and put steady growth in a more prominent position. The meeting pointed out that we should make good use of government bonds to expand effective investment and support water conservancy investment. The policy focuses on supporting transportation, affordable housing projects, water conservancy and other fields, which will still play a significant role in driving traditional transportation, municipal infrastructure orders, cement and other basic building materials. (2) The Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the industry standard “standard for design and selection of prefabricated houses”: the standard is the first standardized design and selection standard for components of prefabricated houses in China, which will lead the design units to implement standardized forward design, focusing on solving the connection between the standardized design of prefabricated buildings and the application of standardized components and components. Build a “1 + 3” standardized design and production system together with the size guidelines of three main components and parts, which will fully open up the links of prefabricated housing design, production and engineering construction, and promote the coordinated development of the whole industrial chain. (3) The National Bureau of statistics released the operation of the purchasing manager index of non manufacturing industry in March: the business activity index of construction industry was 58.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the new order index of the construction industry was 51.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 60.3%, down 5.7 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the PMI of the construction industry showed that the prosperity level of the industry continued to rise. The improvement of the business activity index in the sub item shows that the construction progress of the construction industry has accelerated, and the expected index of business activities continues to be in the high boom range, indicating that enterprises are still optimistic about the follow-up demand, and the new order index has dropped, but it is still in the expansion range.
Zhou viewpoint
Under the influence of the epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy has increased. This week, Fuzhou and Quzhou relaxed the purchase and sale restrictions, which may represent the breakthrough of the relaxation of the boundary of real estate and the government’s defense of steady growth and risk prevention. The follow-up policies to stabilize growth have been further strengthened. We believe that steady growth is expected to continue to increase, and the prosperity of the infrastructure chain will continue to rise in the medium term. The fiscal revenue and expenditure and the issuance of special bonds reflect the continuous efforts of the fiscal policy to ensure the capital side. The PMI of the construction industry and the provincial investment plans show that the pace of project implementation has been significantly accelerated. This round of policies focuses on supporting transportation, affordable housing projects, water conservancy and other fields, and the pull on traditional transportation and municipal infrastructure projects is still prominent.
We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities in the construction sector from the following three directions: (1) the prosperity of the infrastructure municipal chain and the improvement of valuation under the continuous force of steady growth: we are optimistic about the continuous repair opportunities for the valuation of leading infrastructure enterprises with historically low valuation and stable performance, and pay attention to China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Jsti Group(300284) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (CNOOC asset valuation repair), etc. (2) There are bright spots in the demand structure and investment opportunities under the incremental development of new businesses: with the promotion of policies such as double carbon strategy and green and energy-saving buildings, the prosperity of fabricated buildings, energy conservation and carbon reduction and infrastructure segments related to new energy is high, and enterprises with relevant transformation layout are expected to benefit. Last week, the 14th five year plan for building energy efficiency and green building development was issued, which proposed to promote building photovoltaic, prefabricated construction and decoration. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co.Ltd(300374) ; Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , etc. of new energy business transformation and incremental development; Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) and others benefiting from the large volume of building photovoltaic market, and Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) and other leasing service providers of green building materials (aluminum formwork). (3) Direction of state-owned enterprise reform: 2022 is the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. It is expected that while the reform of state-owned enterprises is advancing steadily, the previous reform dividends in corporate governance structure, strengthening incentives, mixed reform, improving efficiency and stimulating vitality are expected to enter the release period. It is suggested to pay attention to the directions of performance improvement with cost reduction and efficiency increase, new business transformation layout and asset reorganization, and Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) etc.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the real estate credit risk was out of control, the policy concentration exceeded expectations, and the progress of state-owned enterprise reform was lower than expected.
