Key investment points
Zhou viewpoint (referring to March 28 to April 5, 2022, the same below)
The trend of local tourism is significant, and the characteristics of privacy and high quality are prominent. According to tuniu data, local and peripheral travel orders during the Qingming holiday dominate Qingming reservations and travel orders. There are fewer single orders in Qingming, with orders for 1-2 people accounting for 63%, orders for 3-5 people accounting for 18%, and travel days shortened, with 1-3 days accounting for 62%. According to Ctrip data, the orders of small and beautiful hotels accounted for more than three times more than before the epidemic, the orders of boutique home stay increased by more than 50%, the orders of parent-child theme hotels accounted for nearly 40%, and the bookings of camping products on Qingming Festival increased by more than three times year-on-year; Among them, “one South (Guangdong) one North (Beijing)” camping is the hottest, and the order volume of camping products in Guangdong has increased twice compared with that during the Spring Festival.
The western tourism market has recovered and taken the lead against the trend. According to Ctrip data, after the unsealing of some areas previously affected by the epidemic, users’ willingness to travel rebounded significantly, Qingming travel consumption appeared “compensation psychology”, and the consumption power increased significantly. The overall orders recovered year-on-year, with the West leading the east by nearly 20%. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Shenzhen became popular tourist cities.
Looking forward to the future, we will wait for the medium and long-term prosperity to improve. Looking forward to the future, we believe that with the superposition of favorable policies and the gradual progress of covid-19 oral specific drugs, the fundamentals of industries & companies damaged by the epidemic are expected to continue to repair. At the same time, the market expectation of the epidemic will be curbed, China’s prevention and control policies will be loosened, and consumer demand & company performance repair will continue to strengthen. There may still be repeated at the bottom, but the middle line can gradually turn to positive optimism strategically. Looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement brought by the medium-term recovery and the high-quality service consumption sector with great upward flexibility, such as catering, hotels, scenic spots, Ota, outbound tourism, etc.
1) catering: the chain wave is still surging, and the willows are waiting for the flowers. Looking forward to the future, the recurrence of the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In 2020, the chain rate of catering in China was only 17.4%, and the average chain rate in developed countries reached 47.2%. In the long run, the trend of industry branding chain is still accelerating, and the leaders continue to benefit. With the steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the era of epidemic after the catering leader. We recommend jiumaojiu and Haidilao, Helens and Naixue tea. It is suggested to pay attention to Yum china-s. Catering supply chain is highly correlated with catering performance. We are optimistic about catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization. We recommend Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , nongnongshan spring and Yihai international.
2) Hotels: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the layout of leading enterprises is accelerated to recover in a cycle. According to yingdie consulting, single hotels or small and medium-sized hotels with weak profitability will be shut down in 2020 under the impact of the epidemic. With the advantages of scale, brand, member resources and capital, Jinjiang, Huazhu and ShouLv, the leaders of chain hotels, expanded against the trend during the epidemic period. In 2020, the market share of Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS in terms of hotel rooms reached 20.2% / 13.9% / 9.2%, with a total of 43.3%. With the economic growth and consumption upgrading, the proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased year by year, becoming the main force of the industry development. The epidemic accelerated industry integration and chain rate. With the smooth progress of the vaccine, the superposition of Pro cyclical economic recovery and the recovery of business travel demand, the recovery of hotel performance after the epidemic is expected. It is recommended to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huazhu group-s.
3) Cultural Tourism: the demand has warmed up. The cultural tourism planning of the 14th five year plan is good, and the prosperity is expected to improve. The 14th five year plan for cultural tourism emphasizes promoting the coordinated development of outbound tourism, Chinese tourism and inbound tourism. The recurrence of the epidemic in 2022 may affect the recovery process of cultural tourism for a long time. With the continuous rise of China’s vaccine coverage, the performance elasticity of high-quality targets is sufficient and has layout value. Under the background of stable epidemic prevention and control forms and policy support, focus on recommending the long-term performance leader Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , the scarce private leisure scenic spots, and Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , which benefits from the booming demand for peripheral tourism and opens up the space for stock growth; Recommend China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , with high-quality products and short-term passenger flow pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to Fosun tourism culture, Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei, Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) . OTA & outbound tourism business is expected to recover and overseas cultural tourism is expected to continue to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to Tongcheng travel, Ctrip group-s, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) .
Risk warning: the risk of continuous epidemic spread, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; Risk of fierce competition in the industry; The progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expected risk.
