Event comments
Review of tourism data during the Qingming holiday in 2022. 75.419 million people traveled in China, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, and recovered to 68% in the same period in 2019 according to comparable standards; The tourism revenue reached 18.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%, and recovered to 39.2% in the same period in 2019; The estimated customer unit price is 250.4 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.06% and recovery to 41.44% in the same period in 2019. Due to the severe epidemic situation in some areas, strict epidemic prevention policies, many inter provincial and municipal exchange checkpoints, the large number of people going on outings and tomb sweeping trips during the Qingming small and long holiday, the high proportion of short trips during the three-day small and long holiday, the reduction and exemption of scenic spot tickets and other reasons, the recovery of tourism revenue is slower than that of tourists.
Self driving has become the mainstream of holiday travel, and the number of passengers sent by railway, waterway and civil aviation is lower than that in the same period in 2020. During the Qingming Festival holiday, the total number of passengers sent by railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation across the country is expected to be 53.781 million, a decrease of 62.7% over the same period in 2021 and 9.8% over the same period in 2020. Among them, the railway is expected to send 6.229 million passengers, a decrease of 83.7% over the same period in 2021 and 45.2% over the same period in 2020; The highway is expected to send 46.34 million passengers, a decrease of 53.2% over the same period in 2021 and an increase of 42.5% over the same period in 2020; The number of passengers sent by waterway is expected to drop by 650000 in the same period of 2020, a decrease of 425000 over the same period of 2020; Civil aviation is expected to send 562000 passengers, down 87% from the same period in 2021 and 53.8% in 2020.
During the Qingming holiday, local leisure and short-range vacation have become the main tone, and the travel cost has decreased significantly. Tourists in the province accounted for 94.9% of the tourists received by all regions, a new high since the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. OTA platform shows that in 2022, local hotel orders accounted for 67% and local travel orders accounted for 91.3%.
Hainan epidemic affected the sales of duty-free stores. Affected by the epidemic in Hainan, during the Qingming holiday, the three major duty-free shops on outlying islands in Sanya (China free travel service, China overseas travel service and China export service) were temporarily closed. It is preliminarily estimated that the three duty-free shops in Sanya have closed, resulting in a daily sales loss of RMB 100120 million, which has a serious impact on the performance of the duty-free industry. In the first quarter of this year, the sales amount of the global boutique duty-free city of CITS increased by 252% year-on-year, the number of duty-free shoppers increased by 360% year-on-year, and the number of duty-free purchases increased by 200% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the current epidemic situation has erupted in many places and points in China, increasing the pressure of prevention and control. The ninth edition of covid-19 diagnosis and treatment plan has slowed down the run on medical resources by asymptomatic patients to a certain extent, but for several days, more than 10000 new diagnosed and asymptomatic patients have been added in a single day, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control has not been relaxed. If the epidemic situation is improved before May Day, tourism consumption will increase significantly. In the medium and long term, the recovery of tourism market mainly depends on the trend of epidemic situation in China, the change of epidemic prevention policy and the R & D process of covid-19 specific drugs. Overall, the willingness of Chinese tourists to travel remains unchanged, and the tourism market will recover in stages under the repeated influence of the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) . There are risks
The impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry is significantly higher than the expected risk; After the epidemic, consumer demand is less than the expected risk.
