As an important part of the consumption sector, medicine is regularly valued by the market, especially the first quarterly report of 2022. The main reason is that CXO sector will be the first quarterly withdrawal of Pfizer’s oral covid-19 small molecule industry chain. Pfizer will focus on the performance of ; In the CXO sector, the growth is more certain in 2023, and the performance of individual stocks will be more obvious in the second half of the year, focusing on Baicheng medicine, Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) etc; If we look at the longer cycle, the first tier stocks such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) will still have strong global competitiveness. In addition, the continuation of covid-19 vaccine will have a high probability and may last for many years. The vaccine approved for the renewal of guanzhifei repeat protein and Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) adenovirus vaccine should enjoy a certain valuation.
Fundamentals, chip structure, valuation system and other factors support the bottom of the pharmaceutical sector. From the perspective of fundamentals, the annual expenditure of medical insurance fund increases by about 10% (the expenditure of medical insurance fund increases by more than 14% in 2021), and the growth of the industry is guaranteed. Compared with the 12th Five Year Plan, the pharmaceutical industry has been upgraded from the livelihood industry to the livelihood and national security strategic industry, and the pharmaceutical status has increased significantly. In addition, combined with the first quarterly report, mainstream pharmaceutical companies are better; From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical sector has stabilized after a rapid decline in nearly three quarters. Its PE (TTM, March 31, 2022, the same below) valuation is about 29 times, returning to the bottom of 2018 again, especially the most expensive medical services and CXO sector, which are valued at more than 40 times, which is obviously attractive; From the chip structure, the position of public funds in medicine is also at a low point in recent ten years. After deducting active medicine funds and index funds, it is currently about 7%, at a very low allocation level.
Specific configuration ideas
CXO field of generic drugs: focus on Baicheng medicine, Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) etc;
Innovative drugs and industrial chain: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , etc;
Biotech innovative drugs: nuocheng Jianhua, Keji pharmaceutical, Rongchang biology, kangnoah, Xiansheng pharmaceutical, etc;
API field: Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , etc;
Vaccine field: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , etc;
Growth hormone field: Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) etc;
Medical service fields: Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , haijiya medical, etc;
Blood products: Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) etc;
Medical and aesthetic fields: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , etc;
Medical device field: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc;
Field of traditional Chinese medicine: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
[Key recommended combination in April] Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Baicheng medicine, Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139)
Risk warning: R & D progress may be less than expected; The price reduction of centralized purchase is higher than expected; The medical insurance policy was further tightened; The risk of intensified industry competition; Risk of repeated outbreaks at home and abroad; Medical accident risk, etc.
