As we pointed out in the opening report "computers at the end of 21, just like semiconductors at the end of 18", the computer industry is basically equipped with strong anti cyclical attributes, that is, it expenditure has strong toughness. We have counted the GDP growth rate from 12 to 21 years and the growth ranking of the computer industry in more than A30 industries. The data of the past 10 years have preliminarily verified this judgment.
Under the new situation of intensified epidemic, the market has two new concerns about computers.
First, on the supply side, delivery and implementation are extremely difficult:
However, we believe that with 20 years of experience in the epidemic, software delivery is not a big problem. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 20 years, customers, especially head customers, have developed mature response methods, such as major customers such as banks and car factories, and third-party suppliers have the ability of remote delivery, not to mention some leading companies have realized SaaS.
Second, on the demand side, the subsequent needs of customers are affected:
However, from the perspective of customer structure, many computer company customers are mainly head customers, such as finance, automobile and central enterprises, which have strong payment ability, and most waist customers (such as revenue of more than 100 million) also have certain anti risk ability.
Based on this, we selected three major directions to be weakly sensitive to the epidemic under the above supply and demand scenario; Based on the high prosperity of Q1, the high probability is expected to continue to Q2 and even the whole year:
1. Financial it: financial information innovation accelerates and is basically insensitive to the epidemic
Reiterate that "the winners and losers of the whole year remain the same". At the same time, the supply and demand of financial it is basically insensitive to the epidemic. Three key links of core recommendation: bank it, basic software and hardware, OA, etc. Relevant subject matter Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) , Fujian Apex Software Co.Ltd(603383) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) ., pan micro, Zhiyuan, etc.
2. Cloud Computing: SaaS ironing cycle fluctuates and is weakly sensitive to the epidemic
Subscription transformation strengthens the performance of SaaS manufacturers. According to the 2021 annual reports disclosed by Kingdee, Jinshan, UFIDA and Glodon Company Limited(002410) the company's cloud transformation slightly exceeded the market expectations as a whole, and the core indicators such as subscription contract liabilities and cash flow were well reflected in the statements, confirming our early judgment on the reversal of the bottom of the sector. In the context of the epidemic, manufacturers have accelerated product iteration on the supply side and continued to evolve business models, with significantly reduced cycle disturbance. The cloud transformation of companies has reached the medium term, and the momentum related to subscription has increased. It is expected that it will form a higher boost to the statements in the future. Core recommendations: Kingdee International, Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) .
3. Car: after the new energy, it is intelligent and weakly sensitive to the epidemic
With the wide application of high-performance computing platforms such as Qualcomm 8155, we have seen the rapid improvement of car cabin intelligence in the past two years. From 2022 to 2023, Qualcomm's next-generation cockpit chip 8295, the autopilot platform Jiaolong ride NVIDIA, and NVIDIA's autopilot chip driveorin landed. The decline of automobile intelligence continues to accelerate, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to improve. Core recommendations Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) (joint coverage of communication and automobile); It is suggested to pay attention to the information of Guangting. Market and sector trend review:
Last week, the computer sector rose 0.23%, the gem index rose 1.10% in the same period, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.43%. The sector underperformed the market.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is depressed, major changes have taken place in sector policies and major changes have taken place in the international environment.
