There is a shortage of chips in leading automobile enterprises, and the supply and demand of automobile chips continues to be tight. The supply of automobile chips continues to affect the production plan of automobile enterprises, reflecting that the supply and demand relationship of automobile chips is still very tense. Ford said on March 31 that its flatrock assembly plant, which produces Mustang cars, would suspend production next week due to a global semiconductor shortage. In addition, according to the financial report of China Central Television, Ford recently announced that it would sell “semi-finished” vehicles lacking some non safety critical function chips, and promised to reissue the chips to dealers in a year. GM’s semiconductor pickup plant in Indiana will remain idle for two weeks on March 25. In addition, Toyota announced on March 11 that the output of Q2 this year will be reduced by up to 20% compared with the original plan. Leading automobile enterprises have a stronger voice in taking chip orders, and there is still a shortage. It can be predicted that the problem of chip supply and demand widely exists in the whole automobile supply chain.
The production expansion cycle of the supply side is long, and it is expected that the supply and demand will be tight for a long time. The expansion of chip production itself requires a time cycle of one to two years, while for wafer foundry, the verification time of automobile chip needs at least one to two years, and the return cycle of expansion investment is longer than that of consumer electronics. Several overseas IDM manufacturers also have corresponding production expansion plans, but the production capacity is expected to start in the second half of 22 years and 23 years: Renesas electronics plans to increase the production capacity of high-end MCU by 50% and low-end MCU by about 70% by 2023; Italian French semiconductor and tower semiconductor announced an agreement to build an agrater3300mm wafer plant in the agratebrianza plant in Italy. The fab is expected to start production in the second half of 2022. At the same time, the continuous occurrence of black swan events, such as the Fukushima earthquake in Japan and the global covid-19 epidemic, also have a continuous impact on the supply side. It is expected that under the strong demand for chips in the trend of automotive intelligence, the supply and demand will remain tight for a long time.
The localization rate of automotive chips is low, and Chinese chip manufacturers usher in a good opportunity for introduction. According to the data of China Automotive chip industry innovation strategic alliance, in 2019, the global automotive chip market was about US $47.5 billion, of which the scale of China’s independent automotive chip industry was less than 15 billion yuan, accounting for about 4.5% of the world, and the localization rate of the overall automotive chip was less than 5%. Automobile chips involve safety issues, and have high requirements for chip verification. Tier1 and automobile enterprises are less willing to change suppliers. At present, under the background of emphasizing the independent control of the supply chain, the lack of core has further promoted the willingness of Chinese car enterprises to choose domestic chips, and Chinese MCU manufacturers have more verification opportunities. It is expected that in the future, as more manufacturers pass the verification, the share of Chinese chip manufacturers in the automotive chip market will gradually increase.
Suggestions: power chip manufacturers: Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) etc; MCU Design Manufacturer: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp.Ltd(688595) , Ninestar Corporation(002180) , jiefa Technology ( Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) subsidiary), etc; SOC Designer: Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) , Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) , etc; CIS sector: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Galaxycore Inc(688728) etc.
Risk warning: the manufacturer’s verification progress is less than expected, the risk of intensified market competition, and the downstream demand is less than expected
