Investment summary:
Talk every Monday:
On the supply side, the new capacity of soda ash in 2022 is still limited:
In 2022, we expect that the actual supply increment is expected to be very limited, and the comprehensive capacity of China's soda ash industry will be reduced by about 3%.
In the first half of 2023, the first phase of Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) natural alkali project will be put into operation gradually, and the supply restriction of the industry will be alleviated in 2023. At present, the positive expectation of soda ash market is mainly driven by the demand of downstream flat glass and photovoltaic glass:
In 2021, the production level of flat glass continued to rise and the production progress of photovoltaic glass continued to accelerate. The total demand for heavy soda ash in the whole year was about 14.6 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10%, significantly higher than the growth rate of comprehensive output of soda ash (6.3%).
According to Zhuo Chuang information, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, there were 304 float glass production lines and 260 in production in China, with a total daily melting capacity of 172500 tons, a decrease of 2300 tons or 1.3% compared with the end of 2021. There are 243 photovoltaic glass production lines in production in China, with a total daily melting capacity of 45000 tons, an increase of 3550 tons or 8.6% over the end of last year. As the demand for photovoltaic glass warms up in the later stage, the production progress is expected to be accelerated, and the consumption of heavy alkali will be supported.
In April, the ignition plan of photovoltaic glass production line is still relatively centralized, and the daily melting capacity is expected to increase by 2400 tons. Some float glass production lines have cold repair plans, and the daily melting capacity may be reduced by 550 tons. On the whole, the demand for heavy alkali is stable and good. Photovoltaic glass will be the long-term growth point of soda ash demand:
During the "14th five year plan" period, China's average annual PV growth scale was 70-90gw.
We assume that the permeability of double glass modules will gradually increase from less than 40% to 60%. It is estimated that the demand for soda ash of photovoltaic glass will be about 4.31 million tons in 2025. Under the optimistic expectation in 2022, the demand increment will exceed the reduction range:
The limited supply of soda ash will continue, and the scale of photovoltaic glass will increase over time, which can offset the losses caused by the cold repair of some flat glass production lines. Overall, the prosperity of soda ash will continue, and the absolute price will remain at a high level.
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading capacity of soda ash equity: Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) .
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC's primary petroleum and petrochemical index rose or fell by + 0.86%, ranking 18th among 30 industry indexes. This week, the Shanghai index rose or fell by + 2.19%, and the CITIC primary petroleum and petrochemical index was - 1.32% relative to the Shanghai index. The rise and fall of petroleum and petrochemical sub sectors: oil refining (+ 3.76%), oil exploitation (+ 1.29%), other petrochemical (+ 0.30%), engineering services (- 0.32%), oilfield services (- 1.64%), oil sales and storage (- 4.98%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: this week, the petroleum and petrochemical sector led the rise of individual stocks, including Hunan Yussen Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002986) (+ 7.73%), Suzhou Douson Drilling&Production Equipment Co.Ltd(603800) (+ 7.44%), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) (+ 5.05%), St Haiyue (+ 3.83%), Guangdong Modern High-Tech Fiber Co.Ltd(300876) (+ 3.65%); Stocks leading the decline include Hunan Heshun Petroleum Co.Ltd(603353) (- 8.76%), Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) (- 7.18%), Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) (- 6.46%), Shandong Polymer Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002476) (- 5.90%), Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) (- 5.52%), etc.
Risk warning: policy risk; Geopolitics exacerbates risks; The risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and the risk of continued deterioration of the global covid-19 epidemic;
