Key investment points
Investment strategy: with the advent of the traditional off-season, the price of thermal coal fell this week. However, considering the inventory, transportation capacity, demand level and overseas prices, it is expected that the space for price correction is limited, and the short-term price fluctuation has little impact on the value of coal enterprises. Coking coal ushered in the peak season, the demand for replenishment of storage in downstream coking plants was gradually released, the willingness to purchase was strengthened, and the rising momentum was obvious. Overall, the Q1 performance of coal enterprises is expected to be very bright. The price of Q2 power coal long-term association is difficult to retreat, the price of coking coal long-term association is still rising, and the Q2 performance is expected to continue to be high. Recently, coal enterprises have successively released their annual reports for 2021. The trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure. It will be a major feature of the industry to continuously return high returns to investors. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022. In terms of individual stock recommendation, companies with a high proportion of long-term association have more stable performance growth, companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have more attractive valuation, and companies with large advantages of coal types or logic of output growth have strong competitiveness α In addition, coal stocks that actively layout energy transformation will also get the opportunity to improve their valuation. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to focus on: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , power investment energy. Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: the prices of ports and pits have fallen. In terms of supply, affected by the shortage of coal management tickets and maintenance at the end of the month, the output of coal mines in the production area has been reduced, the railway transportation capacity is tight and the epidemic situation has affected, the shipment is limited, the number of coal trucks pulled by coal mines in the production area has been reduced, and the port is mainly dominated by long-term cooperative coal shipment and delivery. In terms of import, the current foreign trade price continues to hang upside down, and it is close to Ramadan (Ramadan on April 3, lasting for one month). There are few sources of imported goods, and the quotation is relatively strong. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises stopped production due to the epidemic, resulting in the reduction of power plant load, the superposition of new energy, and the overall procurement enthusiasm is not high. With the advent of the traditional off-season, the price of thermal coal fell this week, but considering the inventory, transportation capacity, demand level and overseas prices, it is expected that the space for price correction is limited.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: demand improved, and the price of long-term Association continued to rise in the second quarter. This week, with the relaxation of control in Tangshan and the boost of double coke market sentiment, the price of long-term association of mainstream coal enterprises increased by 150200 yuan / month in the second quarter. In terms of supply, the coal mines with low output in the early stage have gradually returned to work, but the overall supply side remains tight; Internationally, the supply and demand of marine coal market are both weak recently, but it is still upside down compared with China. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, Ganqi Maodu port cleared 194 vehicles per day (week on week – 17 vehicles) on the 4th of this week, and the customs clearance volume fell somewhat. In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, inter provincial transportation is still blocked, but the demand for replenishment of storage in downstream coking plants is gradually released and the willingness to purchase is enhanced. Then continue to pay attention to the shipment and downstream demand.
Summary and Prospect of coke: the expectation of resumption of production in the downstream is stronger, and the price still has room to rise. In terms of supply, the phenomenon of automobile transportation interruption and tight transportation capacity under the influence of the epidemic continues, and the inventory in the plant continues to be at a high level. In terms of demand, some downstream steel mills still have limited transport capacity and poor arrival. However, with the strengthening of the expectation of steel mills’ resumption of production and the improvement of rigid demand, the increased willingness of port traders to find goods may support the subsequent price rise. On the whole, the supply and demand structure of coke may gradually turn to a tight balance state, and continue to pay attention to the shipment and steel plant production in the future.
Power coal: Port coal prices fell and port inventories increased. (1) As of April 1, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal was 1295 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of March 25, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $253.00/ton, down 1.7% week on week. (3) From March 28 to April 1, the average transfer volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 497400 tons, with a decrease of 22400 tons compared with the week on month. The average throughput of Qinhuangdao coal port was 496400 tons, with a decrease of 35400 tons on a weekly basis. (4) As of April 1, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.07 million tons, an increase of 20000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 2.97 million tons, an increase of 250000 tons on a weekly basis
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has decreased, and the inventory of coking plants has decreased month on month. (1) As of April 1, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) As of March 31, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $539.90/ton, down 10.58% on a weekly basis; The price of low volatile injection coal was US $301 / ton, with a decrease of 0.99% on a weekly basis. (3) As of April 1, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 11.412 million tons, with a decrease of 98000 tons on a weekly basis, 15.10 days of available coking coal and a decrease of 0.10 days on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price was flat month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of April 1, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3600 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) The coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 78.10%, with a week on month increase of 0.10%; (3) As of April 1, the operating rate of major rebar mills in China was 54.75%, with a decrease of 0.66% on a weekly basis. (4) As of April 1, the coke inventory of China’s sample steel plants (110) was 7.0741 million tons, an increase of 91600 tons on a weekly basis; As of April 1, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 1 million tons; production capacity 1-2 million tons; production capacity 2 million tons) was 866000 tons, an increase of 135000 tons on a weekly basis.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the national development and Reform Commission completed the first batch of coal price index behavior evaluation and compliance review; (2) since this year, the country has added 12.32 million tons of coking capacity and eliminated 6.96 million tons; (3) the special verification of the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022 began on March 30; (4) the main body of the first national large coal storage base in Sichuan was completed; (5) in February, the import of coking coal in Japan decreased by 20.91% year-on-year
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import risk.
