Event: Kerui released the sales data of top 100 real estate enterprises in March 2022. The cumulative full caliber sales of top 10, top 11-30 and top 31-50 real estate enterprises from January to March decreased by 35.2%, 48.0% and 51.9% respectively year-on-year; The sales area decreased by 30.1%, 47.8% and 51.2% respectively year-on-year.
The total sales volume of real estate enterprises decreased by 263.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and the total sales volume of real estate enterprises decreased by 263.6 billion yuan year-on-year; The top 30 real estate enterprises achieved 415.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5% and a month on month decrease of 2.4pct; The top 50 real estate enterprises achieved 479.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.1% and a month on month decrease of 2.6pct; The key monitored real estate enterprises achieved 449.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.2%. In March, the sales data of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to accelerate downward, because the boosting effect of urban policies on the demand side could not be clearly reflected in the sales data. We believe that if we want to reverse the bottom of the city's scene, regional demand side policies will continue to be introduced; At the same time, the long-term interest rate has room for further reduction.
Differentiation occurred among real estate enterprises, and high-quality enterprises took the lead in recovering: from the month on month sales data, 32 of the top 100 real estate enterprises were growing month on month, and 7 enterprises increased by more than 100%. Although the total data continued to decline, the demand of some high-quality real estate enterprises has given priority to recovery. Enterprises with marginal improvement of sales data in the current month can be divided into three categories: 1) leading central enterprises: about 1 / 4 of the real estate enterprises with improved sales month on month are central enterprises or companies with central enterprise background. Such real estate enterprises are the main force in 2021 and have strong supply capacity; 2) Regional real estate enterprises: real estate enterprises deeply cultivated in Dawan district or the Yangtze River Delta have accumulated a good reputation locally, with strong demand in the superimposed region and significant recovery in sales; 3) Steady operation of private enterprises: brand private enterprises focusing on the first and second tier core cities, with reasonable soil storage structure, sufficient marketable value and obvious sales improvement.
The average monthly sales price hit the bottom and rebounded: in March, the average sales prices of top 10, top 30, top 50 and key monitored real estate enterprises were 15021 yuan / m2, 15499 yuan / m2, 15667 yuan / m2 and 15414 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, 2.0%, 2.0% and 5.2% respectively; The cumulative average sales price decreased by 7.3%, 4.8%, 4.4% and 0.3% respectively year-on-year, narrowing the decline. We believe that there may be two reasons for the decline and recovery of the average price: Although the overall sales data is down due to the constraints of the supply side and the interference of the epidemic, the demand side of some cities has improved, driving the increase of the average sales price; On the other hand, after the risks of the insured real estate enterprises are fully exposed, the willingness to sell assets at a discount is low, which forms a positive support for the price.
Investment suggestion: at present, there is no substantial improvement in the total data, and the regulation policy is still dominated by a loose rhythm. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the operation quality and sales scale of some high-quality enterprises is obvious. Under this environment, we continue to recommend three main lines: 1) the dilemma reversal enterprise that makes the most of the bad in the early stage and benefits from the optimization of the centralized land supply policy: Vanke A; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Risk warning events: the tightening of financing environment exceeds expectations, the tightening of real estate policies exceeds expectations, and the quoted data lags behind or is not timely
