Key news tracking this week
On March 29, 2022, the National Energy Administration issued the guiding opinions on energy work in 2022, which proposed to steadily promote the structural transformation, steadily reduce the proportion of coal consumption, increase the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption to about 17.3%, replace about 180 billion kwh of new electric energy, and the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the power consumption of the whole society reached about 12.2%.
Price tracking comments on key products this week
WTI oil prices fell 12.8% this week to US $99.27/barrel.
Key injection sub industries: caustic soda / calcium carbide PVC / viscose staple fiber / polymerized MDI / rubber / acetic acid rose by 3.7% / 2.9% / 2.2% / 1.6% / 1.5% / 1.0% month on month respectively this week; Silicone / DMF / TDI / Spandex / Vinyl PVC / ethylene glycol / urea / solid methionine decreased by 14.1% / 4.6% / 3.1% / 1.9% / 1.3% / 1.2% / 1.0% / 0.9% month on month respectively; The price of pure MDI / VA / light soda ash / heavy soda ash / titanium dioxide / liquid methionine / viscose filament / ve remains unchanged.
The top five sub industries that rose this week: potassium chloride (Vancouver) (+ 17.5%), American LPG (Texas) (+ 12%), natural gas henryhub (spot) (+ 11.5%), nitric acid (Anhui Jinhe 98%) (+ 11.4%), hydrofluoric acid (Zhejiang quhua)) (+ 9.1%).
Caustic soda: the market price of liquid soda in China has increased sporadically. Due to the covid-19 epidemic in East China, the arrival volume of liquid soda is limited and the supply of goods is tight. Long order prices are in the stage of discussion. In the northern region, there are many market maintenance arrangements in the later stage, and public safety and health events have not improved significantly. Transportation in some areas is still limited, and the inventory level of some alumina is not high. Manufacturers are bullish on long order prices.
Viscose: at present, the production cost of viscose staple fiber is high and upward, the manufacturer’s cost side support is strong, and the price is mostly firm and stable. Affected by the epidemic, the logistics and transportation in some areas are blocked, the parking and production reduction phenomenon is obvious, the overall industry boom is declining, the price of downstream cotton yarn market is weak and plummeting, the actual transaction focus is shifted downward, the user’s stock mentality is cautious, and still focuses on rigid demand transactions.
Market performance of chemical sector this week
The basic chemical sector rose 0.93% over last week, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43% over last week. The basic chemical sector underperformed the market by 1.5 percentage points, ranking 19th in all sectors. According to Shen Wan’s classification, the basic chemical sub industries with large weekly increases include viscose (+ 15.89%), glass fiber (+ 8%), potassium fertilizer (+ 4.24%), phosphate fertilizer (+ 4.03%), and Oil Trade (+ 4%).
Key sub industry views
(1) many factors affect the 22-year prosperity of the sub industry. The overall profitability of the pesticide industry is expected to improve in the 22-year period when the cultivated land area is expected to increase, grain prices remain at a high level, China’s supply is orderly and prices rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) ; The prosperity of the tire industry has bottomed out and the new energy field has brought development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . The boom of viscose industry is expected to reverse, and Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) . (2) The demand economy is relatively weak, and the fields of semiconductor materials, military materials and other new materials are independent and controllable in the medium and long term; The chemical synthesis platform company Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , and China’s private gas leading enterprise Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) . (3) The demand for sugar substitute and wind power is highly subdivided, and the downstream is highly concerned; It is recommended that the leader of new energy functional materials Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , and the global leader of sweeteners Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) . (4) The vertical and horizontal expansion of the leading enterprises has highlighted the advantages of integration, and the profit center is expected to rise; Focus on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of crude oil price; Covid-19 epidemic leads to less demand than expected risk; Safety and environmental protection risks
