Focus:
On March 30, the central bank released the questionnaire survey report of bankers in the first quarter. The overall operation of the banking industry maintained a high boom, and the overall loan approval and demand index rebounded month on month. Among them, the loan demand of manufacturing industry, infrastructure, wholesale and retail and real estate industry increased month on month, and the increase of small enterprises and larger medium-sized enterprises was more obvious.
Industry and company dynamics
1) on March 30, the monetary policy committee of the central bank held a regular meeting in the first quarter of 2022. 2) On March 28, Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued the notice on completing the work related to seamless loan renewal of Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) industry. 3) On March 28, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) announced the comprehensive financial service plan for new citizens. 4) This week, four banks including Bank Of Zhengzhou Co.Ltd(002936) redeemed tier 2 capital bonds; The CBRC approved China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) issuing financial bonds of no more than 60 billion yuan Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) completed the issuance of 5 billion yuan of secondary capital bonds Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) the board of directors deliberated and approved the proposal on jointly initiating the establishment of a public fund company Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) issue a plan to stabilize the stock price Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) 8 billion yuan of convertible bonds will be listed and circulated on April 6 Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) and other 16 banks issued annual reports and announced profit distribution plans Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) and other 12 banks released the results of convertible bonds to shares as of the end of March. 5) Next week Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) plans to disclose the annual report.
Data tracking
This week, the A-share banking index rose by 5.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.69 percentage points, ranking 5 / 30 in the rise and fall of the sector, among which Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) (+ 20.47%), China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) (+ 14.91%) and Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) (+ 14.60%) were the top gainers.
Open market operation: a total of 195 billion yuan of reverse repo expired in the open market of the central bank this week. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 615 billion yuan of reverse repo, with a net investment of 420 billion yuan.
Shibor: this week, the trend of Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank lending rate decreased, the overnight Shibor interest rate basically stabilized at 1.60%, and the seven-day Shibor interest rate decreased by 19bp to 2.01%.
Investment suggestions:
At the macro level this week, the manufacturing PMI data reflected the downward pressure on the macro economy, while the bankers’ questionnaire data in the first quarter showed a double rise in credit approval and demand index month on month. Combined with the regular meeting of the goods administration, it is required to ensure the reasonable and stable growth of the total amount of credit and further maintain market expectations. It is expected that the total amount of credit in the first quarter will be supported, and the banking industry will continue to supplement the price by volume. Recently, listed banks have successively disclosed their annual reports, and the performance expectations have been fulfilled. From the annual report, the retail business and credit cost form a stronger support for the performance. At present, the performance and dividend yield of the banking sector are stable and high, and the static Pb of 0.62x has a high cost performance. We maintain the “recommended” rating of the industry, and continue to recommend at the individual stock level: China Merchants, Ping An, Societe Generale, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) etc.
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly;
2) business differentiation of small and medium-sized banks, major business risks of individual banks, etc
