Core view
Industry view: under the influence of the epidemic situation, geopolitics and other comprehensive factors, the prices of important raw materials for automobile production, such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, oil, rubber and chips, continue to be high, and the cost side of the industry is under pressure. Since February, some vehicle enterprises have officially announced price increases. The market is worried that the pressure on the supply side will be transmitted to the demand side, and the correction range of the sector is large in the near future. Recently, a number of auto companies announced that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in March increased significantly month on month. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March is expected to be nearly 30%. External environmental pressure has intensified the differentiation of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, and the industry is at the key node of switching between old and new kinetic energy. We believe that the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict in the short term, but the trend of automobile electrification and intellectualization remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the dimension in the next 5-10 years. Some parts fall to a reasonable valuation, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend two main lines: the rise of independent brands and the upgrading of automobile electric intellectualization.
Independent rise, electric intelligence. Main line 1: the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 14.8% in 2021. Independent brands will gradually surpass joint ventures in terms of organizational structure, supply chain perfection and business model, and are optimistic about the industrial chain investment opportunities brought by the rise of independent brands for a long time. Main line 2: new energy vehicles have entered a high-quality development stage, and the technical trend is to upgrade to lithium iron phosphate, 4680 cylinder, multi-in-one electric drive system, vehicle platform high voltage and other multidimensional upgrading. Mainline 3: the core of automotive intelligence is the application of data flow. Incremental parts include: acquisition end – laser radar, millimeter wave radar, camera and other sensors, transmission end – high-speed connector, calculation end – domain controller, application end – air suspension, wire controlled braking and steering, interaction end – HUD, interactive lamp, central control instrument, sky glass, etc.
Forecast of 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report: as of March 31, 102 companies in the automotive sector announced the forecast of 2021 annual report, of which 40 achieved pre increase, 2 continued profit, 4 slight increase, 13 reversed losses, 14 pre decrease, 9 continued losses, 18 first loss and 2 slight decrease. A total of four companies in the automotive sector announced the forecast for the first quarter of 2022, of which one increased in advance, two increased slightly and one decreased slightly.
Sales volume of new forces: Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal / Nezha / Zero run / Byd Company Limited(002594) / extreme krypton / AIAN delivered 15414 / 9985 / 11034 / 12922 / 10059 / 104878 / 1795 / 20317 new energy vehicles respectively in March 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 202% / + 38% / + 125% / + 270% / + 909% / + 333% / / -, and a month on month increase of + 148% / + 63% / + 31% / + 82% / + 193% / + 18% / – 38% / + 125% respectively Byd Company Limited(002594) delivery volume ranks first among the new forces of independent brand car making, second in ai’an and third in Xiaopeng.
Raw materials: in March 2022, the price of automobile raw materials maintained rising, and zinc ingots and steel increased month on month; Rubber increased month on month and decreased year on year; Aluminum ingots decreased month on month and increased year on year.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic brings supply chain risk and demand recovery is lower than expected risk.
Investment suggestion: focus on recommending vehicle enterprises with strong independent new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ; Core increment / growth parts: the core of the core increment / growth parts and components of the core increment / parts of the core increment / growing parts: the following: ofthe following of the following of the following: the core of the core of the core of the core and the parts of the parts of the core: the core of the core increment / parts of the parts of the core of the core increment / parts of the parts of the parts of the parts of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the core of the following:: 60179 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) of the and integrated die casting ( Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ), air suspension and other tracks with rapid penetration.
