Sector market review
This week (03 / 28-04 / 01), the transportation index rose 5.13%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43%, outperforming the market by 2.7%, ranking 4 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the shipping sector increased the most (10.23%), and the bus sector decreased the most (- 0.70%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: since early March, the epidemic has been repeated in many parts of the country, some transit centers and outlets have been shut down, express delivery in many places has been interrupted periodically, and delivery delays and suspension of delivery have also occurred on some e-commerce platforms, which has a great impact on the express service. The express business volume is expected to decline. The National Post Office expects that the express business volume in March is expected to decline by 2.5% year-on-year, and the express business revenue is expected to decline by 4.4% year-on-year. The industry entered the off-season in March, and the price side remained stable. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the main business data from January to February 2022, with the completion of express business of 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.01%, deducting non net profit of 1.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.07%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive. The total amount of funds to be repurchased shall not be less than RMB 1 billion and not more than RMB 2 billion, and the repurchase price shall not exceed RMB 70 / share.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the strict supervision restricts the supply of the industry, the demand side still increases every year, and the performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain. Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) released the 2021 annual report, realizing a net profit attributable to the parent company of 432 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49.67%. It is expected to maintain a high growth this year and next. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: the three major airlines disclosed the 2021 annual report, Air China Limited(601111) / China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) / China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) with losses of 16.642 billion yuan, 12.103 billion yuan and 12.214 billion yuan respectively. The losses have expanded compared with 2020, and the performance of the first quarter is expected to remain under pressure. After the “3 ″ 21” China Eastern Airlines mu5735 aircraft flight accident, the Civil Aviation Administration went all out to carry out relevant work, and issued a notice on March 22 to immediately carry out a two-week industrial safety inspection, strengthen the investigation of potential safety hazards in the field of civil aviation, ensure the absolute safety of aviation operation and people’s lives, and it is expected that the supply of the industry will shrink. Starting from March 5, the fuel surcharge of air tickets on Chinese routes was raised to 20 yuan or 40 yuan, covering some of the rising fuel costs. Paxlovid is an important means to treat covid-19 and catalyzes the release of international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is prominent, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 320483 points, down 2.14% month on month; The SCFI index was 434871 points, down 1.9% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 132100, up 18.8% month on month and 89.0% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 917.00, down 1.7% month on month and up 47.0% year on year.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
