Industry dynamics
New product tracking: in the past 22 years, the projection brand has successively released new products, with continuous optimization and iteration of product performance and optimization of consumer experience, which may be expected to improve the penetration of intelligent projection. Jimi launched the upgraded z6x pro of new z6x, which is light and beautiful. At the same time, the software functions such as brightness, CPU chip and picture calibration are upgraded. The new products are expected to continue to strengthen the competitiveness of the company at a high-volume price of about 3000 yuan. When Beibei launched the high-end flagship F5, it is the first in the world to adopt OSRAM p1mr new generation led lamp set, which is suitable for 0.47dmd chip, and the brightness is increased to the ceiling level of 3000ansi lumens. Nut launched the J10 upgraded j10s, focusing on high-quality color imaging. Nut was jointly developed by Leica. Leica specializes in color matching and presents a higher color gamut.
Data tracking: according to IDC data, the total shipment of projectors in China reached 4.7 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.6%, of which 3.48 million units were shipped in the household market, with a year-on-year increase of + 16%, boosting the growth of the industry. In 2021, driven by the continuous optimization of the performance of industry products and the overweight of education for leading consumers, the growth rate of the industry has been significantly boosted, and it is expected to return to the high growth channel. According to IDC's prediction, China's projection shipment is expected to exceed 5.6 million units in 2022, an increase of 19.1% at the same time.
According to Lotu data, the sales volume of China's intelligent projection market reached 4.91 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. It is expected that the sales volume of intelligent projection market will exceed 6 million units in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 23%. In the first two months of 22 years, the sales volume of China's intelligent projection line in January and February were 412000 and 245000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 16% and + 9% respectively. Although the first quarter was the off-season, the projection industry also achieved good results. By brand, the shipment volume of Jimi accounted for 21.2%, reaching a new share since reaching the top in 2018. Among them, in the household market, the sales share of Jimi exceeded 27%, exceeding the sum of two to four; The market share of LED light source exceeded 31%, with a year-on-year increase of 4pct. In 2021, Jimi delivered nearly one million units, with a year-on-year ratio of 32%, leading the industry in growth rate.
Investment advice
Intelligent projection is in line with the changing characteristics of the times such as the third consumer society paying more attention to individuals and spiritual needs. It is upgraded from information acquisition to information enjoyment, and has great potential for penetration and improvement Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) as a high-quality leader of high growth track, it is suggested to focus on it for a long time because of its outstanding product power, outstanding consumer education ability and leading share. We estimate that Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.046 billion, RMB 5.672 billion and RMB 7.830 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.1%, 40.2% and 38.1% respectively. We estimate that the net profit attributable to parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 490 million, RMB 690 million and RMB 950 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 81.8%, 40.1% and 38.3% respectively. EPS will be RMB 9.8, 13.7 and RMB 18.9/share respectively. The current share price corresponds to 39.6x, 28.3x and 20.4xpe from 2021 to 2023 respectively.
Risk tips
The penetration rate of the projector is lower than the expected risk, the risk of relying on outsourcing of core parts, the risk of intensified industry competition and the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials.
