Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was – 45.60% month on month; The output of the five major steels was – 0.93% month on month; Inventory month on month -1.22%; Steel price chain ratio + 0.68%; Raw materials rose and gross profit was under pressure. The government issued a voice to further strengthen the expectation of stable growth. In the short term, the epidemic will affect supply and demand, the demand side is weak, the reality is strong, and the expectation is strong. Some areas with serious epidemic on the supply side are forced to reduce production. In the short term, the steel price may fluctuate strongly under the support of cost, and in the long term, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
LME copper current price / Changjiang nonferrous copper current price month on month + 0.20% / + 0.70%; The current price of LME aluminum / the current price of Changjiang nonferrous aluminum was – 3.41% / – 0.74% month on month. Aluminum: energy and geopolitics affect overseas supply. China’s supply is constrained and the inventory side is low. The short-term epidemic affects downstream construction. In the long run, stable growth and new energy still guarantee demand, and supply and demand will remain tight. Aluminum prices are expected to run at a high level throughout the year.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of electric carbon / lithium hydroxide was – 0.79% month on month / flat. The United States plans to accelerate the development of lithium resources, considering that the lithium supply after 2025 may be affected under the development cycle of green space project. The shortage of lithium has eased under the overseas heavy volume and the recovery of China’s salt lakes. Under the cost pressure, the demand for low-end electric vehicles may be affected, but the overall industry is still tight. There is a game between the upstream and downstream of electric carbon, and it is expected that the short-term price will stabilize or slightly callback; The price difference between lithium hydroxide and electric carbon may continue to narrow driven by overseas demand. In terms of nickel, LME nickel price was – 3.67% month on month. Under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the global nickel market may be in shortage this year, and the nickel price is expected to remain high.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide was – 6.57% / – 6.51% / – 4.01% month on month. Transactions at high prices are still cold, and suppliers rationally reduce prices. In the short term, prices may be weak under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ).
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
