Key investment points
Relaxation and continuous fermentation of demand side policies: 1) Quzhou cancelled the purchase and sale restrictions at the same time: Quzhou issued a new policy on April 1, and put forward relevant policies in six aspects: supporting the reasonable demand of housing, optimizing the regional purchase restriction policy and improving the management of housing pre-sale. Large-sized apartment houses are required to implement the housing policy as well as the registered residence in the city, and cancel the 5 year sale policy for the 21 years registered residence. 2) Qinhuangdao lifted the restriction on purchase: in April 2nd, Qinhuangdao abolished the regulation and control policy in 2017, including two sets of registered residence purchase restriction, 1 sets of non registered residence registration restriction, and 12 months’ social security certification restriction policy. 3) Lanzhou issued a policy combination fist, and the second was to relax the “housing and loan recognition”: Lanzhou issued a notice on several measures to implement the strategy of strengthening the provincial council on April 4. In terms of purchase restriction, Lanzhou proposed that families who already have one set of housing and have settled the house purchase loan can apply for the implementation of the first set of housing loan policy when purchasing again, which is the second city to recognize loans but not houses after Zhengzhou.
The demand repair was not as expected, which forced the policy relaxation to speed up and improve the level: since December 21, the demand side policies of cities have been relaxed, and it was not until March 22 that they entered the stage of relaxing purchase, loan and sales restrictions. Combined with the sales data of the top 100 real estate enterprises from January to March, we believe that the demand repair is less than expected, forcing the policy to enter the relaxation of purchase, loan and sales restrictions, while more cities in 22q2 are expected to follow up, and the relaxation of demand side policy is expected to be carried out from point to surface.
Phased progress has been made in the rescue of private enterprises: 1) rongchuang: the “20 rongchuang 01” extension scheme of domestic bonds was approved by 82% of the holders, and the principal payment was extended for 18 months, maintaining the original coupon rate unchanged. 2) China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) : the company has realized a total debt restructuring of 104.8 billion yuan, the sale of assets is progressing steadily, and the debt restructuring is still advancing. 3) Fuzhou State-owned Investment Co., Ltd. and Zhuhai State-owned Investment Co., Ltd. are in the process of conducting due diligence on a number of high-quality projects, and it is expected that Fuzhou State-owned Investment Co., Ltd. and Zhuhai State-owned Investment Co., Ltd. will take the lead in introducing a number of high-quality AMC projects. 4) Jiazhaoye: on April 5, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) announced that it would cooperate with great wall AMC and jiazhaoye in urban renewal, commercial and residential development, commercial operation, culture and tourism, cruise ships and ferries. We believe that this round of policy easing is a combination of demand and supply. If we only relax demand and do not rescue real estate enterprises in time, the final industry trading volume is still difficult to repair. The policies supporting real estate enterprises’ rescue and high-quality private enterprises in 22q2 are expected to be accelerated.
Investment suggestion: steady growth continues, policy relaxation and fundamental repair are not as good as expected, and the scissors gap promotes the opening of the beta market. 22q2 key recommendations:
1) development: benefiting from the relaxation of industrial policies, beta has both alpha: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (double inflection points of operation and performance, with strong comprehensive development strength) Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) (the change of command is beneficial to the real estate business, and the cultural tourism business benefits from the end of Q2 epidemic) Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (for high-quality private enterprises with reversed difficulties, there is an opportunity to optimize the gross profit margin).
2) property: the risk control of real estate enterprises is strengthened + the epidemic situation enhances customer stickiness, and the industry beta is expected to spread to the property management track. Key recommendations: the target of A-share scarce property – China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (accelerating development from heavy to light, actively looking for M & A opportunities), and the target of high growth and low value of H-share – Country Garden Service (“the target of 100 billion in five years remains unchanged, and the scale continues to lead) Jinke service (with outstanding independent expansion ability and highly cost-effective valuation).
Risk tip: the speed and intensity of policy introduction are lower than expected, and the aggravation of the epidemic situation affects the need for repair.
