Market Review
The auto sector fell 0.55%, the CSI 300 index rose 2.43% in the same period, and the auto industry lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 26th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, at the downstream level of each sector. The new energy vehicle index rose 0.41%. Among the sub sectors, the weekly increases of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts and auto services this week were 1.47% / 0.28% / 0.19% / – 1.63% / – 1.39% respectively.
Hot spots this week
The total delivery volume of the seven new forces in March was + 89% month on month. It is expected that the new energy penetration rate will reach a new high in March. Xiaopeng delivered 15414 vehicles in March, mom + 147.6%, and the delivery volume of P5 / P7 / g3i was 4398 / 9183 / 1833, exceeding the expectation; Weilai automobile delivered 9985 vehicles in March, mom + 63%, and the delivery volume of ec6 / ES6 / es8 / et7 was 3032 / 5064 / 1726 / 163 in turn, which was in line with the expectation; 11034 ideal cars were delivered in March, mom + 31%, in line with expectations; Nezha delivered 12026 vehicles in March, a record high, mom + 69%; The delivery volume of Zero run vehicles in March was 10059, breaking 10000 for the first time, mom + 192.8%. GAC ea’an sold 20317 vehicles in March, the first to break 20000, mom + 138.3%, exceeding expectations; The delivery volume of krypton in March 0013 was 1795, mom-38.4%, which was affected by the challenge of supply chain shortage such as epidemic situation and chips. The total delivery volume of the seven new forces in March was 80630, an increase of 88.5% month on month compared with February. It is expected that the new energy penetration rate in March is expected to reach a new high.
Byd Company Limited(002594) officially stopped production of fuel vehicles. In March, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 100 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 announced that the whole vehicle production of fuel vehicles has been completely stopped since March, and will focus on the two routes of pure electric and plug-in hybrid. In March Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy passenger vehicles sold 104338 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.5 times, ev sales 53664, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.3 times, and PHEV sales 50674, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.2 times. Relying on e-platform 3.0 technology and DM-I super hybrid technology, electric + hybrid dual drive, Dynasty series, Ocean series and warship series continue to derive new models, with high growth for the whole year.
Tesla 22q1 delivered 310000 vehicles worldwide, a year-on-year increase of + 68%, of which 29.5w vehicles were delivered by 3 / y, a year-on-year increase of + 61.5%. The global delivery volume of 3 / Y in the first quarter decreased by 5% month on month, which is expected to be affected by the challenge of factory shutdown in Shanghai + supply chain shortage. Tesla Shanghai plant stopped production twice in March due to the epidemic, for a total of 6 days. The first time was from March 16 to 17 for 2 days, and the second time was from March 28 to March 31 for 4 days. The Texas plant in the United States will be put into operation on April 7, and the Berlin plant in Germany has been officially put into operation in late March. With the support of the two super factories, production and sales are expected to accelerate in the future.
This week’s view: Electric acceleration and intelligence are the winners and losers in the second half
Recently, the market has changed from worrying about profitability to worrying more about demand. We believe that the impact of the comprehensive price increase of new energy vehicles is short-term and limited, the demand for cars will not disappear due to the price increase, and the consumption trend of new energy vehicles is irreversible. Since 2021, the consumption of electric vehicles has been dominated by the C-end. We believe that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will continue to grow rapidly, thanks to the dual drive of supply and demand and the simultaneous development of pure electricity and hybrid. At the same time, the automobile is changing from a transportation tool defined by mechanical manufacturing in the past to a mobile intelligent terminal defined by electric intelligence. Intelligence will become the focus of electric vehicle competition. Intelligence is the winner and loser in the second half. Intelligence includes intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit. Under the upgrading of consumption, the increased demand for entertainment experience, interactive experience and sense of science and technology will lead to the upgrading of cockpit intelligence. In 2022, with the mass production and landing of big computing chips L3 intelligent driving will set sail. Grasp the incremental subdivisions of domestic rise and electric intelligent double click, and focus on four subdivisions: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats.
Investment strategy and key recommendations
In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: mainly recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile (H); It is suggested to pay attention to ideal, Xiao Peng and he Weilai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) pull industry chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (detection), Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) (lightweight & Tesla supply chain), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (Intelligent cockpit) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
