The transformation from broad money to broad credit, the forward development of infrastructure investment, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, and the improvement of demand driven by regional economic growth. All policies provide strong support for the stable growth of total credit. It is expected that the fundamentals of the banking industry will be stable and good in 2022.
The monetary policy is stable and loose, giving full play to the function of aggregate growth and the guiding function of credit structure. Monetary policy will further guide financial institutions to effectively expand lending and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit. After the marginal easing of real estate policy at the end of last year, commercial banks adjusted the credit policy, gradually transformed wide money into wide credit, and the space for future growth has been opened. The credit structure has been steadily optimized under the guidance of policies, and the credit scale of key areas and weak links such as small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green finance has expanded rapidly, so as to realize the strong support of finance to the real economy.
The credit process is repeated, but the direction is clear. At present, it is in the initial stage of the transformation from wide currency to wide credit. There is pressure on the credit expansion path and the transformation process is repeated, driving the short-term fluctuation of bank stock price. From the perspective of loan subjects, the demand for household loans needs to be restored, and the resumption of work and production of enterprises promotes the initial recovery of demand and drives the steady growth of loans. In the long run, the direction of steady growth is clear, and the certainty of scale expansion is strong. Waiting for the implementation of policies to take effect, the recovery of physical demand, and the stable upward movement of the banking sector is just around the corner.
Credit expansion and regional differentiation. Based on the industrial structure and policy support, the economic growth trend of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Chengdu Chongqing economic circle is expected to continue in 2022. At the same time, the growth rate of loan balance in the region is leading, reflecting the gradual recovery of regional credit demand. A number of high-quality listed banks bred in the region will benefit from economic growth, expansion of credit scale and steady growth of performance.
Investment suggestion: the credit easing process continues to be promoted, and the steady growth of credit scale provides power for the business expansion of commercial banks. Based on the continuous development of broad credit, we are optimistic about big banks with perfect business layout and strong competitive strength: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . In the overall environment of striving to achieve steady economic development and growth, regional development will show a trend of structural differentiation. Based on the industrial structure and policy support, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and Chengdu Chongqing economic circles will help expand the performance growth space of local banks. Based on the regional economic development and the growth potential of banks, we are optimistic about Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , etc. in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and Chengdu Chongqing economic circle.
Risk tip: the economic growth is less than expected, and the asset quality is down; The policy was adjusted more than expected.
