This report attempts to explore the shortcomings and risks of each transportation sector, as well as possible changes and opportunities in the future from the perspective of development and security.
Import and export trade: the proportion of independent transportation needs to be improved. Import and export security is crucial to safeguarding China’s overseas interests and even economic interests. At present, the short board mainly focuses on shipping and air cargo. 1) Shipping: the proportion of independent transportation of important materials such as container transportation, crude oil import and iron ore is generally less than 50%. At the same time, some enterprises may have certain risks in their overseas assets. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, many measures were taken to ensure the safety of key materials and channels, and increase the proportion of key materials carried; 2) Air cargo: for a long time, there has been a phenomenon of “valuing passengers and neglecting goods” in the development of China’s civil aviation. China’s total cargo aircraft account for less than 5%, and about 50% of China’s air import and export goods are carried by foreign airlines. The problem of short transportation capacity under the epidemic has been exposed, which has greatly stimulated China’s top-down attention to strengthening air cargo transportation capacity, from policy foreshadowing and infrastructure construction to encouraging coordinated development and strong alliance of enterprises, During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China’s air cargo may usher in a new look.
China’s passenger and freight transport: making up for shortcomings and tapping potential under the background of internal circulation. All kinds of passenger and freight transportation in China are of special significance to stabilize and prosper China’s economy, stimulate domestic demand and promote industrial upgrading. TOC field: there is an urgent need to innovate supply and tap consumption potential. 1) In the past, airlines paid more attention to business than expenditure. The average access time of the sinking market was nearly three times that of the central city. The service end products were single, the innovation was insufficient, and the severe impact of the epidemic situation was superimposed. It is urgent to further improve the aviation network and improve services to stimulate the vitality of the sinking market; 2) The high-speed railway in the railway system covers “the East is heavy and the west is light”, the daily dispatching and operation level is relatively low and the flexibility is poor, so the reform of system and mechanism is imperative; 3) Road passenger transport / local travel need innovation and exploration, stimulate new demand and find a longer-term and more stable development path; 4) In recent years, the competition of express delivery has been fierce, with a compound growth rate of 28% in five years. At the same time, the price of single ticket has decreased by 25% and a compound annual decline of 5.5%. Driven by policies, we will gradually break the homogeneous competition and improve the differentiated service capability in the future; 5) Instant delivery / community group purchase: how the business model can be sustainable. Tob field: improve the efficiency and stability of logistics supply chain and upgrade the service industry. Over the past decade, the proportion of China’s total social logistics cost to GDP has decreased from 17.2% to 14.6%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points. However, compared with 6% ~ 8% in European and American developed countries, the overall operation efficiency of China’s logistics industry still has great room for improvement. 1) The transformation of express delivery from single homogeneous competition to comprehensive logistics service promotes industrial upgrading; 2) The road of large-scale and specialization of supply chain industry is blocked and long.
Aircraft manufacturing: there is an urgent need to break through the manufacturing capacity of large aircraft / aeroengine. In 2019, 95% of China’s civil aviation transport aircraft market was occupied by Boeing and Airbus, and domestic aircraft accounted for only 1.2%. From the perspective of maintaining safety and autonomous control of aircraft, it is necessary to continuously promote the R & D and manufacturing of large aircraft.
What changes should be paid attention to in the transportation sector in the next 3-5 years? Layout in three directions:
1) in the field of air cargo / cross-border logistics, the shortcomings of the epidemic have been exposed intensively, and unprecedented attention has been paid to improving the air cargo capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , buy), Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) ( Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) , not rated), Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) ( Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , not rated), etc;
2) in the field of travel, the epidemic has led to great pressure on enterprise operation, which urgently needs to rebuild confidence inside and outside the industry. It is expected to make greater progress in the process of marketization by relying on policy. It is suggested to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) , not rated), Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , overweight), China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , not rated), Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) ( Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) , not rated), etc;
3) TOC / tob logistics is the basic industry for the smooth operation of China’s economy, stimulating domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrading. Under the warm policy, there will be new development opportunities in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , buy), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , not rated), Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) ( Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , not rated), Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) ( Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) , not rated), Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) ( Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
The deterioration of the international situation exceeded expectations, the macro-economy fell short of expectations, the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the impact of the air crash exceeded expectations, and the policy fell short of expectations
