Week focus: according to the annual reports of the three major airlines, the introduction of planned transport capacity has slowed down significantly. The three airlines disclosed the annual report of 21 years. Under the impact of the epidemic, the revenue rebounded slightly, but the loss expanded year-on-year. The total revenue was 243.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% and a decrease of 40.9% compared with 19 years; The profit side suffered a total loss of 41 billion, with a loss of 37.1 billion in the same period of 20 years, and the loss expanded. The impact of the epidemic superimposed on high oil prices, the performance of Airlines was under pressure, and the introduction of planned transport capacity of the three major airlines slowed down significantly. 1) According to the statistics of the planned number of passenger transport fleets of the three major airlines, the total fleet growth rate in 22-24 years was 5.0%, 3.2% and 0.2% respectively, with a compound growth rate of 2.8% in 24 years compared with that in 21 years, and a significant slowdown compared with the compound growth rate of 9.1% in 13-18 years (737max grounded disturbance in 19 years). 2) Excluding the 737max model in the introduction plan (there is uncertainty in go around and delivery), the compound growth rate further decreased to 1.4%; 3) If the domestic aircraft introduction plan is further excluded (the applicable scope of ARJ21 regional models is not connected, and there is uncertainty in the delivery of C919), the compound growth rate will be reduced to 0.1%, and the number of absolute aircraft fleet will increase from 2323 at the end of 21 to 2332 at the end of 24, with a net increase of only 9.
The significant slowdown in the introduction of apparent transport capacity of the three major airlines, on the one hand, reflects the cautious consideration under the influence of the epidemic, on the other hand, it itself reflects that the undelivered orders of the three major airlines (and even the whole industry) are at an absolute low level. According to the statistics of the undelivered orders of Boeing and Airbus, China’s total orders to be delivered in 22-23 years are about 367, of which 150 are 737max. The delivery is uncertain. Finally, only about 217 are relatively determined, accounting for only about 5% of the transportation capacity of the whole industry. In the past, the whole industry introduced more than 400 aircraft every year from 17 to 18 years, and decreased to 254 aircraft in 19 years due to the grounding of 737max. The orders to be delivered in the next two years are less than the number introduced in the past year, and the introduction of transport capacity at the supply end of the aviation company has slowed down significantly.
Industry tracking: 1) aviation: affected by repeated epidemics and events, the number of flights decreased significantly. The number of three major aviation flights in April decreased by 36.9% month on month compared with March, and 76.0% compared with the same period in 19 years; 2) Express delivery: affected by the epidemic, the express delivery development index in March was 251.1, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; 3) Shipping: SCFI fell 1.9% in the week, with an average increase of 74% this year; 4) Air cargo: the departure price in Pudong increased by 10.5% on a weekly basis.
Market review: this week (2022 / 3 / 282022 / 4 / 3), CSI 300 rose 2.43%, and the transportation sector rose 4.74%, ranking fifth among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries. Among the tertiary sub industries, shipping, port and express increased by 10.3%, 8.2% and 7.1% respectively, while road freight, public transportation, intermediate goods and consumer goods supply chain services decreased by 4.1%, 1.1% and 0.3% respectively.
Investment proposal and investment object
Aviation: optimistic about the cyclical elasticity of the aviation sector after the epidemic. It is recommended to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) , not rated), private airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , overweight), China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , not rated), etc. Core logic: the reversal of supply and demand drives the double increase of passenger seat rate and ticket price, and promotes the performance elasticity. The direction of epidemic repair is determined and the time point is uncertain. At present, it has gradually entered a new round of layout period.
Express: we are optimistic about S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , buy) the long-term barriers will be further strengthened and enter the period of strategic layout. In the long run, SF is still the core asset of China’s logistics industry. With the gradual realization of cost control and the gradual operation of Ezhou airport, the company is expected to build new barriers and advantageous positions in the fields of time limited parts, international parts and tob supply chain. The current time point is suitable for the long-term strategic layout. Tongda is the basis of short-term benefit policy, and the single ticket price has improved significantly. We pay attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , not rated) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , not rated).
Undervalued high dividend varieties: focus on the expressway sector. The current dividend yield is generally 4-5%, with allocation value. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) ( Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) , Unrated) (dividend yield 5%), China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) ( China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Unrated) (5%), etc.
Risk tips
The macro-economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the impact of the air crash is more than expected, and the policy is less than expected
