Securities: the average daily turnover of the market this week continued to drop by 20 billion to 0.93 trillion month on month; The balance of two financial institutions (3.31) remained stable at 1.67 trillion. Over the weekend, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the provisions on strengthening the confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing, and made it clear that the investigation and evidence collection or inspection conducted by overseas regulators in China should be carried out through the cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanism, and the CSRC and relevant competent departments will provide necessary assistance in accordance with the multilateral cooperation mechanism. The regulation further defines the regulatory risks faced by enterprises in the process of cross-border listing, and is expected to reduce the follow-up regulatory problems of overseas listing. We believe that the risk release of relevant cross-border listed enterprises is expected to be transmitted to Hong Kong stocks and then to the A-share market, so as to enhance investor confidence. In addition, according to core media reports, some trust companies have recently received the notice on matters related to adjusting the classification of trust business (Exposure Draft) issued by the regulatory authorities. The draft contains the reform framework of trust business, and points out that in the future, trust business will be divided into three categories: asset management trust, asset service trust and public welfare / charitable trust, among which asset management trust includes fixed income asset management trust Equity asset management trust, commodity and financial derivative asset management trust and mixed asset management trust. It is worth noting that the financing trust, which plays an important role in the previous trust assets, is no longer in the new classification standard. According to the data of the trust industry association, by the end of 2021, financing trusts still had a scale of 3.58 trillion. It is expected that a large proportion of them will directly or indirectly enter the capital market and become the incremental funds of the stock market. On the whole, the above two regulatory developments are expected to be repaired by favorable sector valuation at the level of liquidity and market confidence. We believe that after a long period of adjustment, the valuation level of the core value target of the sector has dropped to a reasonably low level, and the investment value of the relevant target is prominent.
Insurance: listed insurance companies have disclosed their annual reports. In 2021, only two Hong Kong listed companies, AIA and China Taiping, achieved positive growth in life insurance NBV, and the growth rate of embedded value is also at a low level in recent years. In addition, only the agent scale of Taiping Life Insurance increased slightly against the market. We can see that in recent years, AIA life and Internet insurance companies have become two forces that can not be ignored in China’s insurance market, and the impact on the market competition pattern is long-term and huge. Due to the different business and regional development focus, the audience of main products is divided, and the problems and reform pain points faced by each Chinese insurance enterprise are also slightly different. In the future, the attempts of insurance companies to find market segmentation positioning, differentiated product strategy, accurate customer portrait and financial technology empowerment will accelerate market reconstruction. The layout of the health care industry chain may become an opportunity to overtake on the curve. We believe that the current valuation of insurance companies is at a low level in recent years. In the future, market value management and increasing the proportion of dividends and dividends are expected to boost market confidence and help repair the valuation. From the dividend rate of listed insurance companies in 2021, the overall dividend rate has reached a high level in recent years and is higher than the interest rate of important term treasury bonds, and the investment value is expected to gradually appear.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from March 28 to April 1, the non bank sector rose by 3.56% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 8 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector rose 3.92% and the insurance sector rose 2.98%, both outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (2.43%). In terms of stocks, the top five losers for brokers are Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) \ (5.19%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (4.66%), The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (4.04%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (2.79%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 (0.30%), ST West Water (- 7.30%).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
