Core view
Recent core ideas:
From the perspective of the industry, we are firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities in the real estate sector. (1) The logic of short-term investment lies in policy deduction: at present, real estate sales, land acquisition and construction continue to weaken. Although the investment is temporarily resilient, the structure deteriorates; Looking forward to the follow-up, although a few cities have warmed up, most cities have not seen an obvious positive trend, and the follow-up policies will continue to increase; As long as the land is not hot, the market is not cold; (2) The logic of medium and long-term investment lies in the improvement of the model and the improvement of the quality of “slow era” roe: in the last cycle, the fundamental defect of real estate stocks lies in the deterioration of the overall profitability of the industry caused by the fast turnover model; The continuous downward killing of real estate enterprise valuation is essentially a negation of real estate financialization; With the free use of pre-sale funds no longer established, the development industry will break away from the financial attribute and return to the attribute of slow turnover manufacturing industry; However, at the same time, by improving the profit margin (abandoning the spontaneous result of fast turnover), improving the collection speed and reducing the debt cost, the roe will remain unchanged while improving the quality, and the industry valuation system is expected to be reconstructed. Pb greater than 1 will become the standard configuration of high-quality real estate enterprises. From the perspective of individual stocks, the development industry, the state-owned central enterprises with low market value and undervalued value and the private enterprises that have fully reflected the operational risks have a large margin for improvement; In the property management industry, the market share of developers of state-owned enterprises has increased determinedly, and their brother property companies will obtain more market share “free” and have certain advantages in valuation. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Sales: the market has not recovered, and the sales decline of top 100 real estate enterprises has expanded
From the perspective of cities, in March 2022, there were 300 cities in a single month, and the residential sales area in a single month was 30.29 million m2, with a month on month increase of + 23% and a year-on-year increase of – 51%; This year, the total residential sales area of 300 cities was 87.79 million m2, with a year-on-year increase of – 45%, and the prosperity continued to be depressed. From the perspective of real estate enterprises, the full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in March 2022 were 579.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 53%. The total full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in this year were 1627.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 47%.
Land acquisition: the market is still cold and the premium rate is slightly warmer
In March 2022, the transaction and construction area of residential land in 300 cities in a single month was 40.34 million square meters, with a month on month increase of + 67% and a year-on-year increase of – 65%; This year, a total of 300 residential land transactions and construction areas were 116.91 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 64%. In March 2022, the transaction premium rate of residential land in 300 cities in the current month was 5.1%, which remained at a low level.
Financing: debt financing and trust issuance continued to decline year-on-year
In March 2022, real estate enterprises issued 94.9 billion yuan of bonds in a single month, a month on month increase of + 185%. The total scale of the whole year was 175.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 44%. In March 2022, the real estate trust issued 12.4 billion yuan in a single month, with a chain comparison of – 29%. The total scale of the whole year was 41.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 78%.
Important events:
① Quzhou, Zhejiang, Fuzhou, Fujian, Qinhuangdao, Hebei and Lanzhou, Gansu relax the purchase restriction policy. ② Harbin has relaxed the regulation of the real estate market and plans to abolish the sales restriction policy in the main urban areas. ③ Dalian, Liaoning plans to fully liberalize the settlement conditions. ④ Dongguan, Guangdong made it clear that failure to pay social endowment insurance premiums on time during the epidemic prevention and control period will not affect the approved purchase qualification. ⑤ Lanzhou, Gansu Province issued support measures for housing construction projects. ⑥ In 2022, the first batch of centralized land supply in many cities ended, and Xuzhou received 5.1 billion yuan, only one premium transfer; Fuzhou received 6.6 billion yuan and 70% of the plots were sold; Hefei received 15 billion yuan, and more than 80% of the plots were capped for competitive quality; Xiamen received 15.4 billion yuan, with no flow auction; Wuhan received 8.935 billion yuan, only one unsolicited auction; Chengdu received 39.3 billion yuan, and about 10% of the plots were sold.
Risk tips: 1. The policy is tightened more than expected; 2. The fundamentals of the industry went down more than expected; 3. The credit risk event of real estate enterprises exceeded the expected impact.
