Industry core view:
In March, the results of new energy vehicles were released, and the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles reached 104900, a year-on-year increase of 333%; Weilai delivered nearly 10000 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 38%; Xiaopeng delivered 15400 vehicles in March, a year-on-year increase of 202%; The ideal delivery volume in March reached 11000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 125%; Nezha delivered 12000 vehicles in March, a year-on-year increase of 270%; Zero run delivered 10000 vehicles in March; GAC ea’an delivered 20300 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 189%; The new energy vehicle industry as a whole has maintained a high-speed growth trend.
In March, new energy orders were full, and the penetration rate of class a electric vehicles may be increased: Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC ea’an and “weixiaoli” and other new power car enterprises had full orders, the sales growth trend continued, the iteration of technology driven the high demand, and new models were more and more favored by consumers. In addition, Tesla and many new power car companies in China accelerated the intelligent process. In Q1, Tesla delivered 310000 vehicles worldwide, an increase of 68% year-on-year, refreshing the quarterly delivery record again. In terms of models, driven by popular models in 21 years, the penetration rate of A00 electric vehicles has been fully improved, and the growth rate will gradually slow down. With the improvement of consumers’ acceptance of electric vehicles and the improvement of new energy vehicle infrastructure, car enterprises turn to the class a electric vehicle market to occupy a broader market for consumers and greater profit space. In February 2022, class a models accounted for 28.5% / 64.7% respectively in the pure electric and plug-in hybrid sales market, an increase of 15.1pct/17.4pct respectively over the same period last year. With the diversification of class a new energy products, the penetration rate is expected to increase continuously this year.
Domestic lithium batteries are flourishing and the whole industry chain maintains a high boom: according to sneresearch data, the installed capacity of global power batteries from January to February was 53.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 107%, of which Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) installed capacity was 18.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 159%, the market share was 34.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, ranking first in the world Byd Company Limited(002594) installed capacity was 6.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 257%, market share of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 5%, ranking the third in the world; The installed capacity of China Innovation Airlines is 2.4gwh, with a market share of 4.4%, ranking sixth in the world Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) installed capacity is 1.6gwh, accounting for 3.1% of the market, ranking eighth in the world. A total of four Chinese enterprises rank among the top ten in the world, and domestic lithium batteries bloom. The downstream demand remained strong, driving the growth of shipments of midstream power batteries and upstream raw materials. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the output of lithium iron phosphate in China in March 2022 was 60200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 114%, and the output of ternary materials was 42900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 55%; The output of cathode materials was 46100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%; The output of copper foil was 43900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%; The output of electrolyte was 52600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62%; Diaphragm output was 868 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 48%. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase in the future, and the lithium battery industry chain shows high investment value. At present, the investment theme of lithium battery industry focuses on high nickel ternary, lithium iron phosphate and wet diaphragm.
Risk factors: the macro environment is less than expected; The penetration rate of new energy is lower than expected; Upstream raw material cost fluctuation risk.
