Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 3.93%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.74 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero from January to February was + 6.7% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it was + 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. We believe that in the short term, the epidemic will counterattack and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions and concerns: ① gold jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction promotes the continuous rise of gold price and stimulates the consumption of gold jewelry. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (March 28 – April 3), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 3.93%, and the retail trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.74 percentage points, ranking sixth in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 9.81%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 11.90%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.09 percentage points, ranking 16th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: from January to February 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.70% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it actually increased by 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics increased by + 19.50% and + 7.00% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold fell $32.77 to $192504 / oz, and silver fell $0.89 to $24.62 / oz.
Important announcements of listed companies: Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) profit distribution plan and dividend planning Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) equity incentive Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) repurchase progress Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) reduction results, Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Ruili Yimei issued annual reports, and Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) issued the first quarter performance announcement. Important events in the industry: ① “Shuiguang needle” and “RF instrument” are included in the supervision of class III instruments; ② The construction of a national jewelry industry innovation and R & D center began.
Risk factors: the risk of epidemic resurgence, the risk of consumption recovery less than expected, and the risk of intensified industry competition
