The energy metal lithium cobalt nickel and industrial metal aluminum copper sectors are mainly recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, and the Shenwan nonferrous metals sector fell 1.97%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.16pct, ranking 26th in the Shenwan sector.
Energy metals: the terminal demand continues to increase, and the supply is difficult to meet in the short term. Under the tight supply and demand, the commodity price of energy metals remains high. The game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has intensified significantly. The energy metal sector has fallen this week due to the negative feedback of demand in the short term. However, with the improvement of downstream acceptance, the restrained demand will gradually recover, and the energy metal sector may usher in valuation repair under the high growth of performance.
Lithium: lithium prices remain high this week, but the correction of the sector is more obvious. We believe that the sustainability of lithium prices has exceeded market expectations, and the correction of price sustainability expectations may drive the sector to switch from cycle to growth style. At the bottom of the sector, the certainty of performance and the sustainability of growth are more attractive. It is suggested to pay attention to: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Shengxin lithium energy and Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) .
Cobalt: the inventory of electric cobalt is still tight, and the delay in the transportation of raw materials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo caused by the epidemic continues. The price of overseas electric cobalt continues to rise slowly, and the premium relative to China’s electric cobalt is gradually expanding. We believe that the cobalt price may remain high until the effective supply of Indonesia wet nickel cobalt project has not been formed. In terms of nickel: Currently, LUNI nickel maintains USD 3 China Tianying Inc(000035) 000 / ton and Shanghai nickel maintains RMB 2 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 50000 / ton. The short supply of futures has come to an end, but the tight supply of nickel has not been changed. At present, the effective supply of new projects has not been realized, and it still takes time to transmit to the metal nickel that can be delivered in futures. In addition, the current short-term inversion of nickel sulfate relative to metal nickel can inhibit the driving force of rkef to turn higher matte to a certain extent, We believe that nickel prices may still have room to continue to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Tengyuan cobalt industry, Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China First Heavy Industries(601106) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) .
Industrial metals:
With the rising global energy prices, the smelting costs of overseas electrolytic aluminum, copper and zinc with high energy consumption have increased significantly, aggravating the cost advantage of lithium related industries in China. At present, the gross profit of electrolytic aluminum has reached about 6000 yuan / ton, which has increased by about 50% since the beginning of the year; Copper smelting processing fees and the price of by-product sulfuric acid continued to rise, and the gross profit of smelting enterprises has reached about 3100 yuan / ton, up about 120% since the beginning of the year. Although the profit of zinc smelting has not improved, the processing fee has reached the bottom or may rise. It is suggested to pay attention to: Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) .
Risk warning: the risk of less than expected demand recovery, the risk of large increase in upstream supply, the risk of repeated epidemic, and the risk of significant increase in inventory.
