Market review:
Last week (2022.3.28-4.1), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by – 1.02%, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.43%, and the machinery industry lost 3.45pct relative to the CSI 300 index. Shenwan 31 primary industries and 22 sectors rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 28th, with the overall performance in the downstream.
Focus of the week:
In March, the PMI was lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell. The PMI of China’s manufacturing industry fell to 49.0 PCT% on March 31, lower than the PMI of the National Bureau of statistics. From the perspective of the sub index, the five sub indexes are lower than the critical point. The production index, new order index and raw material inventory index are 49.5%, 48.8% and 47.3% respectively, indicating that the manufacturing production boom has fallen, the market demand has weakened and the raw material stock continues to decline. With the disturbance of the epidemic and the rise of raw material prices, the manufacturing industry, as a midstream industry, is under significant pressure.
Key data update: 1) photovoltaic equipment: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) announced that it plans to invest 12 billion yuan to build a 32gw high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project. The investment of phase I 16GW battery project is about 6 billion yuan, and strive to be put into operation before the end of December 2023; Phase II 16GW battery project will be started at an appropriate time according to the agreement. Longji has set a record of indium free hjt battery efficiency, and the M6 size indium free conversion efficiency has set a world record of 25.4%. The industrialization of hjt low-cost technology route continues to advance. 2) Semiconductor equipment: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) march 30 released the annual report for 21 years. In 2022, we will continue to promote the construction of existing old factories and Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) , new projects in Beijing and Shenzhen. The 22 years is still the peak of capital investment, and the capital expenditure is expected to be 32.05 billion yuan. At present, the delivery time of equipment is further extended, and the time of reaching production capacity of new capacity is expected to be delayed.
Key points of the industry:
Photovoltaic equipment: in the 22 year plan, the expansion of silicon wafer production will not be reduced, and the expansion of battery wafer production will be accelerated. Pay attention to the links of silicon wafer and battery wafer equipment. According to our statistics, the scale of silicon wafer expansion this year is expected to exceed that of last year, reaching more than 150gw, and the demand for silicon wafer equipment exceeds 30 billion yuan. In terms of battery chips, TOPCON and hjt have planned production capacity of 162gw and 153.5gw respectively. It is expected that TOPCON will be the first to usher in large-scale production this year, with a new capacity of 50gw. Recently, Longji Tongwei successively announced the expansion of battery chip production, all of which are moving towards mass production of n-type technology. With the gradual release of silicon production capacity this year, the profitability of battery cells has improved, promoting the investment of downstream manufacturers in battery cells. We are optimistic about the equipment leader with abundant silicon chip production capacity and leading technology and the battery chip equipment leader with leading technology.
Semiconductor equipment: in 22 years, China’s downstream wafer factories were in the period of expansion, and some wafer factories were promoted to full capacity. According to the global data, the global semiconductor industry sales in January were US $50.7 billion, up + 26.8% year-on-year and – 0.2% month on month. In January, the shipment volume of semiconductor equipment in Japan reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.4%, which confirms the shortage degree of semiconductor equipment. The superposition of the recent Japanese earthquake may aggravate the shortage of chip supply and provide space for the localization of domestic semiconductor equipment. From January to February, the operation data of key Chinese companies were bright. Domestic semiconductor equipment achieved technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. Under the increase of downstream capital expenditure + domestic substitution, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment with the continuous improvement of localization rate.
Lithium battery equipment: in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the market penetration reached 19.2%. China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles in mid February, with an output of 368000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 197.5% and a month on month increase of – 18.6%; The sales volume was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of + 184.3% and a month on month increase of – 22.6%. Power battery manufacturers actively shipped. In February, the output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 31.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 236.2%; The installed capacity of power battery was 13.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 145.1%. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , zhongchuangxin aviation, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) to 2025, the capacity planning is 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively; GGII predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market will exceed 5.5 million in the middle of 2022, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%. With the acceleration of global electrification and the active expansion of battery enterprises, lithium battery equipment has fully benefited. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of lithium battery equipment brought by new technologies such as 4680.
Risk factors: the capital expenditure of downstream industries is lower than expected, the industry competition intensifies the risk, and the epidemic disturbance risk.
