Market review:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index rose 0.42%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index underperformed the market by 2.01 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index rose 0.88%, underperforming the market by 1.55 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Lushan Xincai (61.04%), Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) (36.88%), Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) (28.25%), Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) (23.55%), Xinjiang Xuefeng Sci-Tech (Group) Co.Ltd(603227) (21.62%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Jiangsu Boiln Plastics Co.Ltd(301003) (- 32.39%), Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (- 24.20%), Huarong chemical (- 19.41%), Zhejiang Zhongxin Fluoride Materials Co.Ltd(002915) (- 18.23%), Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) (- 17.76%).
Key investment points:
Phosphate fertilizer: in the first quarter of 2022, the price of ammonium phosphate remained high. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 31, the spot prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 338333 yuan / ton and 3640 yuan / ton respectively, up 9.73% and 1.11% respectively compared with the end of the previous year. At present, the main reasons for the high price of ammonium phosphate in China are as follows: 1 The agricultural boom is rising, global grain prices continue to rise, improve the enthusiasm for farming, and benefit the demand for agrochemical products such as chemical fertilizers. China is in the peak season of spring farming and goods preparation, with high enthusiasm for downstream procurement and sufficient orders from phosphate fertilizer enterprises; 2. The price of raw materials such as phosphate rock, synthetic ammonia and sulfur is high, and the supporting force of phosphate fertilizer on the cost side is strong; 3. The epidemic situation in China is becoming more severe, some cities and ports are closed, enterprise production and freight transportation are blocked, and the supply of phosphate fertilizer market is tightening. In addition, in terms of the international situation, under the influence of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the temporary stagnation of Russian fertilizer export has also exacerbated the rise in the price of international phosphate fertilizer. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 31, the FOB bulk price of 55% monoammonium phosphate particles in Morocco was US $1266.5/ton, up nearly 45% from the beginning of the year; The FOB bulk price of diammonium phosphate in Morocco was US $1207 / ton, up 33% from the beginning of the year, and the price difference of phosphate fertilizer outside China was also significantly enlarged. Considering that during the peak season of phosphate fertilizer demand in China, production enterprises need to give priority to meeting domestic demand, and the current legal inspection of phosphate fertilizer export is relatively strict, it is expected that the sharp rise in overseas phosphate fertilizer prices will be limited to the performance of Chinese phosphate fertilizer enterprises in the first quarter. In the second quarter, with the end of the peak demand season in China, the export of phosphate fertilizer is expected to be relaxed, and the export orders of phosphate fertilizer enterprises are expected to improve month on month. On the whole, domestic demand and external demand resonate and superimpose cost support, and the high prospect of phosphate fertilizer is expected to continue in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises with cost advantages.
Glufosinate: the market price of glufosinate in China rebounded slightly recently. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 1, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of 95% glyphosate raw powder was 18 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 yuan / ton, the transaction reference was raised to 175000180000 yuan / ton, and the port fob24 Jc Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd(002530) 0 US dollars / ton. In the Chinese market, the peak period of drug use is coming, the downstream demand is rising, and the orders for glufosinate raw powder and mother liquor are sufficient. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operation in some areas is unstable, and the manufacturers in the industry have limited access to new orders as a whole. Some enterprises have begun to stop quotation, and the focus of market transaction has shifted upward. In terms of overseas orders, due to the current global shipping obstruction, in order to ensure the timely arrival of goods, the peak season of overseas orders came ahead of schedule, and the export orders of Chinese glyphosate manufacturers increased. In the short term, it is expected that there is still room for a slight increase in the price of glyphosate.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments with improved valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous fluctuation of international crude oil price, the risk of repeated impact of epidemic situation in some parts of China on enterprise operation, and the risk of sharp fluctuation of chemical product price.
