Industry core view:
2022.3.282022.4.01: this week, the new power industry decreased by – 0.32%, and the CSI 300 increased by 2.43% in the same period, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.75pct. It ranks 24th among the 31 industry sectors of Shenwan.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: according to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, from January to February 2022, China’s lithium-ion battery industry maintained a rapid growth trend. From January to February, the total output of lithium batteries in China exceeded 82gwh, the output of energy storage batteries exceeded 9gwh, and the loading volume of power batteries of new energy vehicles was about 30gwh; In terms of the four main materials, from January to February, the output of positive material, negative material, diaphragm and electrolyte reached 235000 tons, 140000 tons, 1.75 billion square meters and 105000 tons respectively. We believe that with the continuous improvement of charging piles, power stations and other infrastructure, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly, and the installed capacity of power batteries will also increase. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with low-end models will be further improved in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant cathode targets.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline this week. The metallurgical grade fell by Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts Co.Ltd(300100) 0 yuan / ton, the mainstream price was 222 Suzhou Hesheng Special Material Co.Ltd(002290) 0 yuan / ton, the chemical grade fell by 200500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 232 Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.Ltd(002420) 0 yuan / ton. The price of silicone DMC fell by 4000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation was 27500 yuan / ton. Xinhui District, Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province issued a distributed work plan for the whole district, which proposed that “by the end of 2023, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation can be installed in the total roof area of Party and government organs shall not be less than 50%; the proportion of photovoltaic power generation can be installed in the total roof area of public buildings such as schools, hospitals and village committees shall not be less than 40%; the proportion of photovoltaic power generation can be installed in the total roof area of industrial and commercial plants shall not be less than 30%.” The price of silicon drops and the policy continues to be favorable. We think this will promote the rise of terminal demand. It is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaic will increase sharply in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ( Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ) and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind power continued to be low this week Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) – the bid opening of 500MW wind turbine procurement (including tower) in Ulanqab Xinghe County. The project is divided into two bid sections. The average quotation of bid section I (150MW) is 2165 yuan / kW and that of bid section II (350MW) is 2149 yuan / kW. After deducting 350400 yuan / kW of tower drum, the lowest quotation is equivalent to about 16511701 yuan / kW. The cost reduction of wind power is higher than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the wind power equipment sector.
Hydrogen energy: Panasonic said on April 1 that it plans to invest 600 billion yen (about US $4.9 billion) in areas such as electric vehicle batteries and hydrogen energy in the next three years. It will invest 400 billion yen in “growth areas” including electric vehicle batteries and 200 billion yen in “technical pillars” such as hydrogen energy. In addition, Toyota has developed a new hydrogen storage module and applied its resin high-pressure hydrogen tank technology to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Recently, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) cooperated with Toyota China for the first time in the field of hydrogen energy and signed the first batch of large orders in China’s fuel cell industry this year. More and more enterprises take the initiative to layout hydrogen energy and jointly promote industrial development. The development prospect of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry is broad. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets related to hydrogen energy industry chain, such as Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
