Baijiu: short term epidemic is still the main reason for suppressing consumption. Moutai’s price increases continue to show premium premium. In April, there was an outbreak in East China and other places. Shanghai and Anhui, Lu’an and Fuyang began to carry out static control. Baijiu consumption scenes were temporarily frozen, and Baijiu‘s demand in the off-season was relatively damaged. Maotai’s wholesale price rebounded rapidly after a rapid decline this week. Feitian’s original box / bulk bottle wholesale price was stable at 2850 / 2660 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70 / 60 yuan, mainly due to the weakening of the sentiment of scalpers and large households in dumping goods after Maotai’s new e-commerce was launched on schedule. At present, the epidemic is expected to be more than expected in the East China market, which has a greater suppression on the overall mood of the Baijiu consumption sector. We believe: 1) in the medium to long term, with the gradual passivation of the epidemic situation, the recovery of the consumption scene such as public banquets and business banquets, Baijiu or the restoration of valuation. 2) Baijiu Baijiu is currently in the off-season, liquor valuation level is mainly depressed by emotions, most of the liquor companies expect to return money in the first quarter, and the annual performance growth is high. 3) The 22nd NPC and CPPCC sessions clearly set the GDP growth target at 5.5%, and the trend of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement has not changed. Maotai’s early wholesale prices fell continuously, causing the market to worry about the prosperity of high-end prices. We believe that: 1) Maotai’s new e-commerce went online as scheduled, the sentiment of scalpers and large households to dump goods in the early stage was a little weakened, and Maotai’s wholesale prices showed strong toughness. Moutai fixed price and bulk bottle price narrowed to 200 yuan, the price speculative bubble further contracted, followed by Moutai’s real demand. 2) This time, Maotai’s new e-commerce platform tested four non-standard products in small quantities. In the future, we expect that the increment of Maotai liquor may meet more consumers through the e-commerce platform. In the long run, Maotai’s new e-commerce platform is an inevitable move under the reform of Maotai’s marketing system, the only way to firmly grasp the initiative of sales channels, and the due meaning of returning Maotai liquor to real consumption. In the early stage, the wholesale price of Maotai fell sharply, and the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale price was stable at 965 yuan, mainly because the company began to control goods and raise prices in the off-season after the marketing meeting The comprehensive cost of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers has risen to 969 yuan in 22 years. Whether the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale price can successfully exceed 1000 yuan, so as to ensure the reasonable profit range of dealers has become the key to channel reform Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the new management is determined to support the price and has a path. At present, the warehouse has been closed and the goods have been stopped, and the prices have been disorderly through various channels. In the follow-up, it is expected to support the price to 1000 yuan smoothly before the Mid Autumn Festival and national day. Looking forward to the whole year, in terms of the relationship between volume and price, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) or through the development of non-standard products, we can reduce the growth pressure of the five main products of puwu, and then achieve the development goal of “2118” on schedule. Baijiu sector valuation has dropped to the comfort zone, the annual performance growth is high certainty, the current Baijiu sector winning odds both. Following the Moutai bottled up price, the impact of the epidemic is passivated, and the valuation of Baijiu still has some room to repair.
Beer: the high-end of beer in 21 years has come to a perfect end, and the pessimistic expectation of short-term beer sales may usher in an inflection point. The 21 annual reports of beer enterprises have basically been disclosed one after another. Under the background of the impact of the epidemic, the trend of high-end has been strengthened. Among them, China Resources beer achieved 1.866 million kiloliters at the sub high end and above, with a year-on-year increase of 28%; The high-end sales volume of heavy beer reached 661500 kiloliters, an increase of 40.5% year-on-year The sales volume of high-end products increased by more than 14.52 million 2 year-on-year. April is the peak season of traditional beer consumption. At the current time, the repeated epidemic situation in East China and other places is still the main reason affecting the beer sector. Beer sales are expected to be effectively controlled in mid March or mid April. From the cost side, under the background of the gradual easing of the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of aluminum and other packaging materials began to fall periodically. We maintain the expectation that the cost side of the whole year will slow down compared with the previous year, and there is still some room for the gross profit margin of the beer sector to improve. In the first quarter, we expect that the sales volume of China Resources beer will still maintain single digit growth, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) sales volume will decline alone, the sales volume of heavy beer will increase in double digits, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) single digit growth. At the current time point, the valuation of the beer sector has fallen back to the comfortable range. It is expected that with the gradual relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, the consumption of ready to drink channels such as catering is expected to recover. We continue to be optimistic about the higher than expected dynamic sales of beer during the peak season of Q2.
Condiment: watch for long-term recovery and pay attention to the elasticity of pickled mustard. Looking forward to 2022, the epidemic situation is disturbed repeatedly, the price of soybean raw materials may be difficult to fall, and the pressure of demand and cost needs to be released. However, with the de inventory of channels, the impact of superimposed community group purchase has weakened, and the industry is expected to show a weak recovery. In combination with the disclosure of the annual report, the leading Haitian has a stable performance, and Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) performance is weak. We pay attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) flexibility. According to the business plan of the annual report, the target growth rate of Haitian revenue / net profit in 2022 is 12% / 12%. Considering the market environment and cost pressure, we believe that the performance in 2021 and the target setting in 2022 are relatively stable. Combined with the recent follow-up, in 2022, the acquisition cost of Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) cost side qingcaitou fell back to the normal level of 800 yuan / ton, superimposed with the price increase factors. Based on the announcement of the 15% revenue growth guidance in 2022, the profit elasticity in 2022 is high, so it is recommended to pay attention.
Dairy products: the short-term disturbance of the epidemic to the supply chain does not change the high demand. Mengniu announced its financial report for 2021. In 2021, Mengniu’s revenue reached 88.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and its net profit was 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%. In 2021, the company exceeded the performance growth target at the beginning of the year, benefited from the national awareness of nutrition and health, and promoted the consumption, upgrading and transformation of dairy products. By category, liquid milk increased by 12.9% overall, and the single product of terenzo exceeded 30 billion; Ice cream increased by 61%; The overall growth of milk powder was 8.2%, mainly due to the rapid growth of adult milk powder; Cheese increased by more than 40%, and all key categories performed well.
Snack food: the disclosure season of the annual report has arrived, focusing on the recovery of high-quality leading performance. The recent epidemic situation in many places has repeatedly affected terminal consumption, and the sector is still under pressure in the short term. However, since 21q3, companies in the leisure food sector have actively adjusted the investment of products, channels and expenses in response to the pressure of rising costs, fragmented channels and weak terminal consumption, and have achieved preliminary results. Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) released the annual report of 2021 this week. In 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 24.65% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.90%; The net profit deducted from non parent company is 66 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.68%. The performance of Q4 is significantly better than that of Q3. The company has achieved preliminary results in the strategic reform of products and channels since 21q2, but the profit side is still under pressure due to the rise of raw material prices, the change of sales channel structure and the cultivation of new products and new channels. The performance disclosure period of 2021 annual report has expired, the performance of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) performance forecast is bright, and Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) q4 is significantly improved month on month. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance recovery of leisure food leaders.
Frozen baking: channel diversification is the focus of this year, and cost pressure has been paid attention to for 22 years. Affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, the purchase intention of bakeries and other channels may be suppressed to a certain extent, the price of palm oil rises, and the price trend of raw materials in the later stage deserves attention, which may affect the profit performance of the company.
We believe that there is no need to worry about the growth of Ligao. Looking forward to 22 years, the supply side capacity will continue to fall, and the sales will gradually get rid of the capacity constraints; On the channel side, except Sam, the company will conduct diversified layout in baking and catering channels; On the product side, there is still great room for improvement in cassava and frozen cake; The price increase on the profit side can hedge the pressure of rising costs.
Investment suggestion: Baijiu sector: the value of high-end liquor is obvious, the secondary high-end is still in the upward cycle, adhere to the growth leader, the real estate Baijiu benefited from epidemic situation, and focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) / Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) . Beer sector: high-end continues to accelerate, short-term sales fluctuations do not change the upward trend of performance, focusing on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) / China Resources beer / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) , etc. Condiment sector: focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) / Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) / Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) / Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) / Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) etc. Dairy products sector: focus on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) / Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) / Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) / New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) / Mengniu Dairy industry, etc. Snack food sector: we should still focus on the main line of growth, pay attention to channel driven, and focus on Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) / Zhou black duck / Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , etc. Frozen baking sector: under the background of rising labor costs and store rents, catalytic frozen baking dough is widely used, and the track is booming, focusing on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) / Namchow Food Group(Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) / Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , etc. Special liquor and beverage sector: pre mixed liquor and energy drinks are good tracks in Changpo, focusing on Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (improved quarterly) / Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (exceeding the expectation in the annual report), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety issues; Intensified market competition; The price increase was less than expected
