Key investment points:
The epidemic has cooled the Qingming tourism market, and the revenue this year is less than 40% of that in 19 years: on April 5, the Ministry of culture and tourism announced the data of the Qingming small and long holiday culture and tourism market. According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 75.419 million Chinese tourists traveled in 2022 during the three-day Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, and restored to 68.0% in the same period in 2019 according to comparable standards; China’s tourism revenue reached 18.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%, returning to 39.2% in the same period in 2019. The epidemic broke out on a large scale in Shanghai, Jilin and other places, and the Tomb Sweeping Day ancestor worship activities were suspended in many places across the country. The willingness of tourists to travel decreased significantly, which dragged down the performance of China’s tourism market.
The peak tourist season of Qingming outing is not prosperous, and the duty-free temporary stores in Hainan are closed: the Qingming small and long holiday was originally the peak tourist season of outing travel, but affected by this round of epidemic, the scenic spot and duty-free industry have performed poorly this year. According to the data of Aba tourism network, Jiuzhaigou scenic spot received 1153 tourists per day from April 3 to 5. According to the limit of 41000 tourists per day, the reception volume reached only 2.81% of the maximum carrying capacity. Some key scenic spots in Kunming, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) , Qingdao, Kaifeng and other places have also issued notices of business suspension or flow restriction. In addition, due to the severe impact of the epidemic situation in Hainan since the end of March, the three outlying island duty-free stores in Sanya (China free, China Travel Service and China Service) announced that they would be temporarily closed from now on in the afternoon of April 2. According to the preliminary calculation of DFE, the daily sales loss of the three duty-free stores is between RMB 100120 million, which has a great impact on the performance of the duty-free industry this year.
The demand for air travel has been hit, and the ticket price has fallen sharply during the holiday: the China Eastern Airlines crash has hit the demand for air travel in the short term, superimposed the impact of the epidemic, the performance of the inter provincial tourism market is poor, and the ticket prices of many popular routes have plunged during the Qingming holiday. Qunar big data shows that as of March 30, the average payment price of economy class tickets booked from April 1 to April 6 was 546 yuan, down nearly 20% year-on-year, and the ticket price for Qingming holiday this year was the lowest in nearly three years. Among them, there are many 10% discount tickets on some popular routes, and the price of naked tickets is only about 100 yuan. Even if the price of some low-cost tickets is added with the fuel cost of machine construction, it is still about half lower than the price of train tickets.
The Ministry of culture, culture and tourism issued the “ten relief articles” to help the industry reduce costs and stabilize operation: under the situation of slow recovery of the tourism industry, in order to implement the several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry jointly issued by 14 departments not long ago, the Ministry of culture, culture and tourism issued the notice on implementing the relief support policies for promoting the recovery and development of the tourism industry on March 31, Ten specific measures are proposed to accelerate the implementation of inclusive financial policies in the field of tourism, improve the implementation rules for tourism enterprises to undertake relevant activities of organs, enterprises and institutions, make good use of the deposit support policy for tourism service quality, earnestly implement strict, scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control measures, and strengthen policy innovation and industry guidance.
Reduce the tax burden of the industry, expand the tourism business of public institutions, and improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of epidemic prevention and control. It is worth mentioning that “the Ministry of culture and tourism will further improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of epidemic prevention and control measures in the tourism field, and timely study and adjust relevant measures according to the epidemic situation.” After this round of epidemic is controlled, more scientific and detailed epidemic prevention policies are expected to be promoted, and the impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry may be gradually weakened.
Investment suggestion: during this year’s Qingming holiday, China’s tourism market is cold, and the outbreak of epidemics in many places has hit the willingness of Chinese tourists to go outing. The new round of covid-19 outbreak will have a great impact on the tourism industry in the short term, drag down the recovery process of the industry, and the tourism market is facing a phased correction. If the current round of epidemic situation is controlled, the epidemic situation in China will gradually improve, and the restrictions on cross provincial and cross-border travel will be gradually liberalized. With the superposition of China’s economic recovery and consumption recovery, the leading stock prices in the tourism industry are expected to achieve a positive return to performance growth and valuation. Suggestions: 1) tax exempt leaders with excellent and stable business performance and benefiting from policy support and channel advantages; 2) Hotel leaders with strong anti risk ability; 3) It is expected to benefit from the recovery of passenger flow and consumption under the normalization of the epidemic.
Risk factors: the recovery of tourism industry is less than expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of natural disasters and safety accidents, and the risk of industry M & A integration.
